Gbagbo: Pushing for power sharing?

The year was 2008. The countries: Kenya and Zimbabwe. The subject matter: presidential elections between (then) incumbents Mwai Kibaki of Kenya, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and their challengers Raila Odinga and Morgan Tsvangirai respectively. Both elections had things in common: the opposition candidates apparently won the elections but the incumbents refused to go, called on their supporters to inflict harm on their opponents and stole the verdict under the watchful eye of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and East Africa Community, the Africa Union and the international community.

In Zimbabwe and Kenya, power sharing was considered the solution to the debacle in those countries. The Zimbabwe's power sharing deal sponsored by SADC, retained Mugabe as president, while Tsvangirai got the less important Prime Minister position with Arthur Mutambara as Deputy Prime Ministe. Mugabe and his Zanu-PF were given key portfolios, and sweeping powers that placed them in charge of the country. Meanwhile Mugabe has refused to abide by the terms of their agreement that stipulate that both the Prime Minister and the President must consult each other for major appointments. In October 2010, Tsvangirai wrote to the United Nations protesting Mugabe's unilateral appointment of officials without consultation as stipulated by the agreement.

In Zimbabwe, since the government of unity was sworn in more than eighteen months ago, nothing seems to have worked. Mugabe and his Zanu-PF agents continue to frustrate the unity government forcing Tsvangirai to threaten to pull out many times. As The Economist magazine put it, “Mr Mugabe still treats the agreement and his prime minister with contempt. Mr Tsvangirai recently announced that journalists were now free to report on Zimbabwe without government approval, yet he was promptly contradicted by the information minister, a Zanu-PF man, who said that journalists without proper accreditation could face up to two years in jail. After months of negotiations, Mr Tsvangirai at last secured the release of human-rights activists and MDC sympathisers who had been detained, and many tortured, on treason charges. But a few weeks later they were rearrested.”

Kenya's power sharing implementation is also beset with the same problems despite reassuring rhetoric by politicians. In Zimbabwe and Kenya, the people who voted for change continue to suffer under the same leaders they rejected. Their economic, social and political conditions have not improved a bit.

The concept of power sharing as practiced in Kenya and Zimbabwe ought not to have been considered in African politics at all. This appears to be the lane on which Laurent Gbagbo driving. Gbagbo hopes that by refusing to relinquish power and using the military to terrorise the population, he will force Quattara into a power sharing deal. It is clear from the outpouring of support for Mr. Quattara that Gbagbo hugely miscalculated and underestimated the intelligence of the West Africa and the AU leadership.

Show of Support for Ouattara

Unlike Zimbabwe and Kenya where regional leaders were divided and could not speak with one voice, thereby allowing the stolen verdicts to stand, the leadership in West Africa is speaking with one voice: asking Gbagbo to step down and allow the legitimately elected leader to take the mantle of leadership. The support expressed by the leadership in West Africa has not only isolated Gbagbo regionally and continentally, but has also reduced his influence in the region to only his southern controlled part of the country.

Reacting to calls by Gbagbo to accept defeat, the President of ECOWAS James Victor Gbeho said “"There is nothing to negotiate as far as ECOWAS is concerned. From now on, ECOWAS will deal with Ouattara, not Gbagbo." The UN Secretary General also made it clear to Gbagbo that Mr. Ouattara's nominee for the post of UN Ambassador will be recognised. President Khama Ian Khama's government in Botswana also condemned Gbagbo's power grab efforts in Ivory Coast. “The Government of the Republic of Botswana is deeply concerned about African leaders who reject election results that are not in their favour. Such actions not only deny people the right to have leaders of their choice, but also thwart efforts to maintain peace and security on the African continent.” Morgan Moseki, Botswana Congress Party's Secretary for International Affairs released statement saying “We urge the AU not to allow the Kenyan and Zimbabwean style Government of National Unity in Ivory Coast as this creates good precedence for losers who remain heads of state with full privileges despite the outcome.”

The strongest show of support came from Kenya's Prime Minister Raila Odinga who called for Gbagbo to be removed by force. Odinga (himself a victim of electoral short-change) said in a news conference in Cancun-Mexico that “Mr Gbagbo must be forced even if it means using military means. What is building up in Ivory Coast now is a tragedy Africa cannot afford this time and one that the international community must not allow at any cost.”

The message from West African leaders and the Africa Union leadership has been loud and clear: Africa will not accept such blatant abuse and entrenchment of power. They will no more tolerate or support autocratic regimes that are hell bent on controlling power at all cost.

Meanwhile the Central Bank in West Africa Chaired by Mali's President seem to have pulled the plug denying Gbagbo access to funds that could help him sustain his illegitimate regime. According to the Reuters News Agency, a statement issued by the West African Central Bank stated "The council of ministers has taken note of the decisions of the U.N, the African Union, and of (West African regional body) ECOWAS, to recognize Alassane Ouattara as the legitimate elected president of Ivory Coast," and that only appointed members of the "legitimate government" would be allowed to access funds held in the central bank's accounts. The blow to deny Gbagbo funds was made heavier after the World Bank also announced that it was cutting all financial help (loans and grant) to the country. The European Union led by France, (former colonial power) has been threatening sanctions. The United States has also proposed sanctions threatening to freeze assets of Gbagbo and his key allies held in the US.

Defiance and acts of violence

But so far Gbagbo has stood his grounds and has remained stubbornly defiant urged on by the country's military. At the same time, he and his supporters appear to be adopting the crude tactics Mugabe adopted: arrest, torture and killing of those suspected to have voted for his opponent. Kyung-wha Kang, the U.N. deputy high commissioner for human rights, said “Between 16 and 21 December, human rights officers have substantiated allegations of 173 killings, 90 instances of torture and ill treatment, 471 arrests and detentions and 24 cases of enforced or involuntary disappearances.” "We have credible reports that almost 200 people may have already been killed, with dozens more tortured or mistreated, and others may have been snatched from their homes in the middle of the night," U.S. ambassador Betty E. King said during the Human Rights Council's meeting in Geneva.

Y. J. Choi, the UN Secretary-General's Special Representative in Ivory Coast, said he was personally prevented from visiting a site suspected to be a mass grave. “I went there and we were about to enter into negotiations then reinforcement came with young men mounted on pick-up trucks […] with rocket launchers directly aiming at us… Finally, because of our rules of engagement, we returned but we will continue to try to reach this site to verify the facts.” “I met him several times to deliver two messages: that he lost and must accept it; the second message was if his action to change the results of the election results in serious violations of human rights then there would be no turning back. He will be dragging […] people into tragedy.”

Gbagbo must be removed by force

The overwhelming support Mr. Ouattara has received internationally suggests that no matter how hard Gbagbo tries to remain in power, he will only be doing damage to his reputation as a statesman and ruin his country's economy. This will be too obvious if the threats of sanctions against him and his government are implemented. The sanctions will make it difficult for him to govern his country. The soldiers who are backing him may switch side or remove him after sanctions begin to hit them. There is a clear similarity between Gbagbo's cling on power and what happened to Mamadou Tandja of Niger when he took a similar path. Although the condemnation and isolation and threat of sanctions by the ECOWAS, AU, EU, US and UN is a welcome development, that effort should not stop at only isolating him or targeting he and his allies with sanctions.

Sanctions are not a viable option. They cannot bring the change in leadership that Ivorians voted for. They have not worked in Zimbabwe and will not work in Ivory Coast. Gbagbo as stubborn as he is will want to cling onto power at all cost, even if it means totally collapsing the country. Although all options must remain on the table as dialogue continues, it must be made clear to Gbagbo that Africa and the international community will only accept the Ouattara leadership as president and nothing less.Gbagbo and his backers must be warned that they risk joining Charles Taylor in The Hague to answer for any crime they commit in the country.

Africa should not accept the Kenya and Zimbabwe style power-sharing arrangement. It has not delivered any tangible results to the ordinary people living in those countries. Gbagbo must not be allowed to ruin his country as Mugabe has done to Zimbabwe. It must be understood that Gbagbo does not command the support of the people as the election results indicate; neither does he have any valuable options. The only option available to him is to accept defeat or face the wrath of the world.

If Gbagbo and the military leaders in the country wish to plunge Ivory Coast into senseless bloodbath, that wish must be denied of them. Any attempt to legitimise Gbagbo's rule through power sharing will set a dangerous precedent in West Africa, a region already noted for its instability and political upheavals. Those who want to take Africa back to the Stone Age like Gbagbo must be stopped at all cost.

The removal of Gbagbo by force will send a powerful message to current and would be tyrants that their corrupt and autocratic style of governance will no more be tolerated on the continent. Therefore, Nigeria, Kenya, Botswana, South Africa, Ghana, Senegal, Tanzania, Malawi and all countries in Africa that believe in democracy and freedom of the people to choose who should lead them should get prepared to contribute soldiers to unseat Gbagbo should the current efforts to persuade him to go peacefully fail. However, any military confrontation must be led by Africans. Neighbouring countries must also get ready to accept people fleeing the country and provide them with food and shelter until such a time that peace returns to the troubled country.

The precedents set by Mugabe and Kibaki and encouraged by regional power brokers seem to have informed Gbagbo that he too could have his way. Perhaps if EAC and SADC regional leaders and Thabo Mbeki in particular had been more vocal and supportive of Morgan Tsvangirai and Odinga as the West Africans are doing, the debacle and the dysfunctional unity governments in Zimbabwe and Kenya as we have them today would have been averted.

The actions of West African leaders, as well as those of AU, UN, EU and the US in the coming days and perhaps weeks will be crucial to what happens to the change and hope that Ivorians voted for. For now the options for Gbagbo is to admit defeat, leave office peacefully or be prepared to be removed by force.

By Lord Aikins Adusei.

The author is an anti-corruption campaigner and the author of “Switzerland: A Parasite Feeding on the Economies of Poor African and Third World Countries?”