Africa Must Address Sociopolitical Discontent

Published on 13th June 2011

"Rebels" protest in Libya                    Photo courtesy
In the world we live in, the world of the internet, twitter and Facebook, the people, especially the young, are all too aware of opportunities closed, of freedoms denied, and aspirations thwarted by elites that are tempted to promote their own interests over the general good. From Avenue Bourguiba to Tahrir Square, like Eastern Europe in 1989, the people are against political systems that leave limited legitimate avenues for expressing discontent; but to take grievances onto the streets as they cry “Degage” “Get out of the Way.” Put it another way: If the lack of economic opportunity provided the explosive material, it is failures in political governance that provided the trigger.

During the past decade, Africa witnessed its fastest period of growth in the last fifty years. Several independent reports attest to the new economic momentum in the continent. We bounced back from the global financial crisis bruised but fitter. Of course the buffers and cushions that enabled many countries in Africa to weather the financial crisis are diminished – but skyrocketing food prices have added a layer of vulnerability. Of course, risks and uncertainties abound. Uncertainties in the global economy hover on the horizon.

The latest statistics, whether it is unemployment, the financial sector, debt or consumer confidence, show that the global economy is still reeling from the aftershocks of the financial crisis, not only in the OECD area, but also in some BRIC countries. There are also risks internally, mainly sociopolitical, food prices adding to the long standing structural issues, in particular lack of adequate affordable energy.

Nonetheless, provided the international environment does not worsen and remains benign, socio political crises can be contained and the energy bottleneck is steadily overcome, going forward growth prospects remain reasonably strong.

Some African countries are beginning to break through the critical threshold; real GDP growth of 7% a few even expect double digit growth this year.

Events in North Africa have led to inevitably temporary disruptions in economic activity in that region. The famous “J” curve. But fundamentals in that region remain favourable in the medium term. As for the rest of Africa, this year economy will grow at between 5.6 and 6%.

However as we are witnessing, in real time, in North Africa, and parts of Sub Sahara Africa, succumbing to the winds of change and social discontent, are some of Africa’s fastest growing economies. Clearly, below the surface, serious problems are brewing. The people are looking for more than impressive headline statistics; they expect their fair share of the expanding opportunities, and above all, the right to be heard.

There can be no doubt; millions of people in Africa over the last decade have been lifted out of poverty. There have been gains on many social indicators, in many countries. But we could have done better. So what are the lessons? What is it that we must now get right?

The first thing we must do is to maintain that growth momentum: sustained, strong growth remains absolutely necessary. Given Africa’s demographic dynamics, 7% GDP growth is the bare minimum. There can be no lasting social gains without growth, perhaps for a decade and more. We must continue therefore to identify growth drivers, steadily eliminate growth bottlenecks – and other infrastructure impediments such as transport, connectivity and the large energy deficit that stand in the way of faster growth and economic integration.

The last five years has seen a significant surge in the focus on infrastructure in Africa, reaching $55 billion in new investments last year alone. I am proud to say that the African Development Bank has been leading the way, financing more than 150 new infrastructure projects over these last five years. We also feel proud that AU has entrusted us with the mandate to bring Africa’s infrastructure to a whole new level.

Secondly, and this is neither new, nor controversial: growth on its own is not enough. Evidence worldwide, from rich OECD countries to the BRICs, to the emerging economic powers, is overwhelming: economic growth that is not equitable, that is not broad based, that does not create sustainable jobs, that creates few opportunities for women and the young, has no resilience.

This is not to underestimate the good progress that has been made in the last 30 years, on gender equality, on access to basic education, often under challenging conditions. But we must admit inequalities have worsened.

Africa remains the second most unequal region in the world, after Latin America. And where that hurts, is especially among the young, the young graduates. With more than two thirds of its population under 25, Africa is the youngest region of the world. And the youth bulge is growing. Youth unemployment in many parts of Africa is as high as 35%. The situation for young women is particularly difficult. A quarter of the young are barely literate and thereby excluded from the labor market.

It is this young population to which we look for as a source of energy and creativity for Africa. So how do we tap this resource, provide our young people with entry points into the formal economy, and thereby with the dignity and self-reliance that come from gainful employment?

Sub-Saharan Africa is now producing around 5 million new university graduates a year. The numbers are much higher in North Africa. But the gap between the expectations created through education, and the economic opportunities it actually delivers, is dangerously high. Unemployment among University graduates is three times higher, than among those with lower levels of education. Compounding the problem is the approach to tertiary education.

I visited the town and region of El Kef, one of the poorest regions of Tunisia where I met with civil society including those representing unemployed graduates. I learnt that while university graduates were having difficulties entering the labour market, those from vocational training centres have a better chance.

The young people rioting in the streets; are, without doubt, protesting about, lack of jobs and opportunities. But it would be simplistic to reduce their struggle to just bread and butter issues. Their struggle is broader. It is also about freedoms and opportunities. African people are demanding a say in how they are governed – the ability to hold Governments accountable. They are no longer satisfied with impressive headline statistics, elections every five years – while space is closed in the interlude!

All nations, the world over, at this time, face economic and social challenges. They vary in nature and proportion. The people of Africa, its youth, fully understand that. They know that unemployment cannot be eliminated easily. They understand economic problems have no magic wand. What they are questioning is the quality of the leadership and institutions charged with managing those issues. They know that only a democratic and accountable system of government has any prospect of managing such complex issues. They know that it has capacities to mobilize public resources, deliver effective services, combat abuse of office, credibly communicate and explain the difficulties. A democratic, accountable dispensation has a large trust premium – so essential in difficult times.

Clearly that must be the starting point on the agenda of inclusive growth, strong accountable institutions. For the rest, we roughly know some of the key ingredients of an inclusive agenda, among them:  Boosting agricultural productivity for small farmers, the majority of whom are women; supporting SMEs, the real creators of wealth, including the informal sector; expanding access to quality education; providing access to water and sanitation;  gender equality moving from equality on paper to equality in accessing opportunities and voice; a minimum of safety nets; for families to deal with shocks, such as the deadly combination of rising food, oil prices and breakdown of family or community networks; getting governments closer to the people; strengthening anti –corruption – which is, all said, a tax on development and an obscene tax on the poor; how to make finance work for the poor; and, critical for a commodity dependent continent – dealing with the Dutch disease – the natural resource curse which generates impressive growth side by side with massive poverty levels.

By Donald Kaberuka.
President, Africa Development Bank.  (Abridged).


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