President J. Zuma and J. Goodluck           Photo courtesy

Various publications by the Africa Development Bank, the UN Economic Commission by Africa, the World Bank and by this writer in The African Executive indicate an Africa destined for robust growth and prosperity in the coming decades. The continent is poised to become a major pole of global prosperity by 2050. However, the cherished goal of a sustained African renaissance may be undone if Nigeria and South Africa, the leading political and economic heavyweights in Africa do not start working together.

Today, Nigeria and South Africa appear to work at cross purposes on multiple continental issues. Nigeria as the most populous black nation on earth and arguably the most politically powerful in the continent is embroiled in a war of attrition with South Africa, the most powerful economic nation in Africa. During the recent embarrassing lack of timely intervention by Africa on Cote’Ivoire and Libya, it was no secret that Nigeria and South Africa did not work from the same page. The recent impasse regarding the chair position of the Africa Union Commission is largely traceable to disparate action by the two nations. There are many other instances too numerous to mention in this article.

It is difficult to ascertain the real against implied reasons for the current crisis of confidence between Nigeria and South Africa. The situation is more perplexing in view of the long term relationship between both countries. Nigeria played a very critical, decisive role in the liberation struggles of South Africa through political, economic, education, military and diplomatic support for liberation movements in Southern Africa, including the African National Congress. As president of South Africa, the revered Nelson Mandela played important intervention roles during the dark days of the General Abacha regime in Nigeria. It was also known within diplomatic circles that President Thabo Mbeki used his long term relationship with then Nigerian president, Olusegun Obasanjo, to intervene as and when due on delicate national issues in Nigeria. Thabo Mbeki and Olusegun Obasanjo worked together, overcoming tremendous obstacles to midwife a new continental organization, the Africa Union, and a new continental economic framework, the New Partnership for Africa Development (NEPAD).

It appears that a fundamental reason for the game of wits between Nigeria and South Africa may lie in the quest to become the “Africa permanent” representative in a reformed United Nations (UN) Security Council. If that is a major reason, then it is an indictment of the strategic political, economic and diplomatic thinking in both countries. There is no evidence or even by any stretch of imagination that a serious effort is afoot to reform the permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council. Despite the efforts of Germany, Japan, India and Brazil to expand the permanent membership of the UN Security Council, there is no incentive for the current five permanent members (United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia and China) to introduce new members into the most exclusive and powerful international club in the world. In particular, the current gargantuan economic woes in North America and Europe makes it unlikely that affected nations struggling with long-term domestic economic difficulties will agree to empower powerful, emerging middle income countries to exercise veto on transcendent global issues.  In short, neither South Africa nor Nigeria will become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council any time soon since there is no vacancy now or in the immediate future.    

However, Nigeria and South Africa can work together to accelerate Africa’s renaissance in the 21st century, the most important external objective of both countries. Neither Nigeria nor South Africa will become more economically prosperous or more influentially globally if Africa continues to be mired in poverty and chronic development woes. The two countries can lead Africa to become a pole of global prosperity, a beacon of democracy, an oasis of human rights and a land of peace. The leadership of Nigeria and South Africa will be crucial in strengthening continental institutions and in facilitating regional integration efforts. As Africa seeks revitalized partnerships with other geopolitical regions in a rapidly changing world, Nigeria and South Africa will need to play important strategic, stabilizing roles as the continent responds to current and emerging issues such as climate change, access to global public goods, equitable trade and private sector investments. As a renewed scramble for mineral resources in Africa reaches an overdrive, Nigeria and South Africa can provide technical assistance to other smaller, resource-rich African countries. The organized private sector in both countries can play important roles in the massive, cross border infrastructure projects urgently needed to accelerate development in the continent.

To maintain leadership roles in the continent, Nigeria and South Africa must continue to consolidate delicate gains in their domestic democracies, continue to expand the dividends of democracy to poor citizens and seek to make verifiable strides in managing national economies, transparently and equitably. It is important to note that Nigeria and South Africa cannot become overbearing or territorial in their leadership roles. On a good note, there is no evidence that Nigeria or South Africa seeks to invade or dominate any country in Africa. Despite the unprecedented influence of Nigeria in West Africa and South Africa in Southern Africa, no evidence exists that either country seeks to expand its territorial borders or intervene in the day-to-day domestic politics of neighbors. 

The relatively positive outcomes from the recent technical bilateral meeting between Nigeria and South Africa suggest a future of better coordination and collaboration between the two countries. However, a lot more is expected of the two giants of Africa as the continent seeks to become an epicenter of growth and prosperity. The roadmap to Africa’s renaissance in the 21st century is significantly strengthened by Nigeria and South Africa working together, and being on the same page.

By Dr. Chinua Akukwe

The author is the former Chair of the Technical Advisory Board, Africa Center for Health and Human Security, George Washington University, Washington, DC. He has written extensively on health and development issues in Africa, including four books. He can reached at [email protected]