There is famous saying that politics is local to which I would extrapolate by saying economics is local. Hence, it is time for me to give an analysis of where the Zimbabwean economy is today with respect to the economic and developmental opportunities offered by both the COMESA market and the larger tripartite market. The following are the head line facts from the data from the COMESA trade data base:

1. Total exports are increasing but at a slower pace than imports resulting in a ballooning trade deficit that peaked at almost $5 billion in 2011.

2. Exports to COMESA are generally on a downward trend with imports rising giving consecutive rising trade deficit amounting to $520m in 2012.

3. Unprocessed and semi-processed commodities dominate the country's exports with tobacco occupying the top position in 1997 and 2012.

4. Of the top export performers in 1997, maize, asbestos, flowers, jewellery, coffee, tea and wheat have dropped from the top 15 export products. On the other hand, platinum, stamps, metallurgical coke, raw hides and granite have made it into the top 15 in 2012.

5. Of the exports to COMESA, the ratio of manufactured products and agricultural products in the export mix has come down as shown in the pie charts below.

The easiest thing to do is to describe a problem and the difficult part is to suggest solutions. Fortunately, for me the solutions I will briefly highlight during this discussion are well known to all of all. Rather the challenge is one of implementation which relates to the how, by whom, where and when.

Zimbabwe needs to re-design the economy based on current economic activity given what the country has gone through and what it has. The economy of 1997 and that of 2013 are very different. It is easier and more beneficial to create a new economic dispensation than to try to recreate the old one as conditions have changed fundamentally as the trade analysis above illustrates. Below are some examples:-

Firstly, the starting point for any modern economy is availability of reliable and affordable commercial energy, especially electricity. Zimbabwe boasts tens of billions of tonnes of proven coal and gas reserves as well as untapped hydropower potential on the shared Zambezi river and all year sunshine for solar power. The massive amounts of municipal and agricultural wastes the country generates annually can be converted into bio fuels for use in transport and industrial applications besides generating valuable raw materials for the recycling industry.

Secondly, the land reform program has produced many new tobacco farmers small, medium and large scale. As the largest export product albeit in semi-processed form, the country should aim to export cigarettes that would see revenues go up more than tenfold. However, tobacco is resulting in massive deforestation of the country with some estimates that in the next decade or two, there will be no tree standing unless something is done to use the abundant coal reserves. Yet the country boasts world class reserves of coal that can be used in place of firewood. It boggles the mind why this destructive practice is allowed to persist!

Third, the country holds world class deposits of diamonds, gold, platinum, precious and semi-precious stones - the basis of a jewellery industry. Rather than exporting raw diamonds, gold and platinum, massive opportunities exist for the country to be a prime source of jewellery. A few grams of gold combined with a carat or two of diamond can be worth thousands of dollars from the tens currently being obtained by selling unprocessed products. Industrial diamonds are the basis for the lucrative abrasives industry worldwide - another excellent opportunity for the country.

Fourth, the country's platinum is the prime raw material in the manufacture of catalytic converters for the automotive industry. As the country with the second largest proven deposits of platinum, there is no reason why Zimbabwe cannot aim to be a key producer of these converters for the global automobile industry. With the Look East Policy, the country should aim to team up with China and produce the catalytic converters for that country's booming automobile industry.

Fifth, the same applies to the massive lithium deposits in the country. Batteries for computers, cell phones, electric and hybrid cars are all lithium based yet the country's lithium is exported for use in oven proof casserole dishes! Zimbabwe should plot to be a significant producer of batteries.

Sixth, the legendary industrial base of the country was hinged on Ziscosteel, now renamed New Zimsteel. Major companies such as Hwange Colliery, Zesa, NRZ, Sable Chemicals, Clay Products, the numerous foundries, metal and engineering works dotted all over the country, the towns and cities of Redcliff, Bulawayo, Kwekwe etc. depended to a great deal on this integrated steel works for their very survival. They have fallen on very hard times since the cessation of operations at Zisco. It will be very difficult to revive the livelihoods of the people there without a vibrant steelworks. Bulawayo absorbed more than two thirds of Zisco's local sales.

Seventh, the situation in Zimbabwe demands an urgent return to the economic drawing board to re-design a new macroeconomic frame work including an industrial dispensation anchored on what is at hand and the new reality on the ground. This calls for a new breed of visionary thinkers, planners and entrepreneurs that are willing to start from scratch and build the Zimbabwean economic phoenix based on present day realities.

This is the challenge before the country today. During the struggle, the mantra was "We are our own liberators." The same applies today with respect to economic emancipation and wealth creation. It my firm conviction based on the beneficiation of some of resource endowments that I have listed including the energy potential that with appropriate policies and institutional support that Zimbabwe would be able within a decade to grow the economy into an economy with a GDP well in excess of US$ 60 billion. This would require not only sound trade,industrial and macroeconomic policies , but the recognition and acceptance that Zimbabweans in the country and outside the country (Diaspora) can deploy their knowledge and skills to unleash the latent potential of the country.

Although the country is landlocked, it is situated at the confluence of most of the key regional infrastructure, such as roads, rail, electricity transmission, telecommunications and air transport. This endowment linked to the relatively sophisticated financial services, world class tourism prospects and opportunities I have highlighted are in my view the foundation of Zimbabwe’s Phoenix.

For the country to fully exploit the benefits of the regional markets and global markets, the precondition is that it must have a functioning, robust and competitive economy. Infrastructure and energy are key to the realization of unlocking the country's comparative advantages and converting them into competitiveness.

The recent agreement with the Japanese private sector which is interested in investing in energy both renewable and non-renewable and in Railways by Central Japan Railways which transports annually billions of passengers and freight should be taken advantage of by a group of countries thorough the creation of regional railway network through a special purpose vehicle whose shareholding should be open to both the public and private sector investors. There are lessons that can be drawn from the airline industry that through mergers and acquisitions, including alliances has become a global industry that is aided by information, communication and technology.

In the world of regionalization and globalization the prescriptive solutions of the past cannot be used to craft the future. The future requires at different levels, in politics and business a leadership that is visionary, bold decisive, innovative and risk taking as the twentieth century paradigm of development is no longer applicable. The old world of 'them and us' between policy makers and business is partly responsible for the sub performance of our economies.

This is why I have championed within the COMESA, EAC and SADC Tripartite arrangement the direct participation of the private sector in crafting the planned Tripartite Free Trade Area. The globalization of production through outsourcing and production tasks require fundamental changes in the traditional rules of origin which are based on the post Second World War economic architecture where it was possible for countries to produce, say a motor vehicle from raw materials to a finished or compete unit. I have and will continue to advocate for a complete overhaul of the rules of origin for preferential trade within COMESA and the Tripartite.

By Mr Sindiso Ngwenya
Secretary General of COMESA.