South Sudan: Why EAC Must Intervene

Published on 27th December 2013

I once wrote an article entitled, “South Sudan: One tribe takes it all perilous” in July 2011. If anything, after all symptoms were clear that South Sudan would go solo, it was easy to foresee what would happen. It was easy to see uneasiness between Dinka and Nuer represented by two protagonists president Salva Kiir Mayardit (Dinka) and Dr. Riek Machar Teny Thurgon former vice president (Nuer). The rift and enmity between these two tribes had a long history. It existed even at the time of fighting for the liberation of South Sudan from the North.

Machar once defected to join Khartoum thinking he’d use it to gain power but  the late John Garang de Mabior’s leadership prowess  stopped him. Machar returned home and was acclaimed by Garang who had warned him of the danger he’d face by rallying with the arch foe - Khartoum.

After the liberation-cum-separation, Mayardit awarded Machar the position of vice president believing that Machar would see the light. Again, the urge and thirst for power did not escape Machar. For the whole time he was VP, it seems he was working to see to it that his dreams of becoming the president of South Sudan are fulfilled.

It is sad for an educated person of Machar’s caliber to become so blind and think about his personal power that he sacrifices and destroys such youngest and newest nation on earth.  When South Sudan went solo, many thought that it would join the East African Community (EAC). Things didn’t work after Kenya Rwanda and Uganda tried to force their fast-tracked community under what came to be known as the 'Coalition of the Willing (CoW)'. This move derailed South Sudan’s effort to get a hunch for her own problems.

Although the situation in South Sudan can be regarded as a passing cloud, the truth is, it is there to stay. It can even get worse. Who knows if Machar isn't in bed once again with Khartoum that's desperately looking for reliable means to keep on enjoying oil revenues from South Sudan? Kiir government's agreement with Kenya to build a harbour and oil pipe through Lamu isn’t good news for Khartoum. Shall it get any puppet that can see to it that South Sudan's occupied by intra-conflict and fighting, Khartoum will nary let such a puppet go.

Machar is likely to get backing from the North to see to it that he gets what he wants even though such a move can become counterproductive in future. Desperate as Machar is, he’s likely to enter any alliance with whoever supports his ambitions even at the expense of the nation.  He has two major trump cards to play: the Tribal card and Khartoum's desperation to see to it that it doesn’t lose oil revenue from the South which pays for the use of the pipes which lie in North.

Economically and strategically, Kenya and Uganda have no choice except to go in South Sudan and make sure that the work is quickly and well done. The two countries are almost the suppliers of almost everything as far as the commercial life of South Sudan is concerned. If South Sudan becomes a failed state like Somalia, Kenya and Uganda will suffer most.

When the duo get into South Sudan, they  must underscore the fact that the current imbroglio is bigger than Kiir and Machar. South Sudan has more than two tribes however bigger they might regard themselves. So too, they should consider the role Khartoum and its Arab allies play in the current impasse.

By Nkwazi Mhango

The writer is a Canada based Tanzanian and author of Saa Ya Ukombozi.


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