President G.E. Jonathan

Looking at how the turn of events unfolded recently in Malawi, one can comfortably say that another presidential casualty is in the making in Africa. This time though, it is not in South Africa but West Africa where President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan’s presidency is going to face its toughest test. Being the economic powerhouse of Africa, whatever happens in Nigeria carries an African hallmark.

Africa recently lost one of its few female presidents - Joyce Banda of Malawi – who rose to power after Bingu wa Mutharika died in office. Banda was trounced by Mutharika’s sibling, Peter Arthur Mutharika. Nigerian Goodluck Jonathan too ascended to power after the death of President Umar Mussa Yar’Adua.

Helped by good luck just like his name, Jonathan’s presidency  has  always been marked with controversy - from the sacking of the Central bank of Nigeria’s governor when he exposed corruption, the hijacking of secondary school girls from Chibok, to repeated Boko Haram attacks on innocent Nigerians.  These seem to be the straw that will break the camel’s back.

While Banda was defeated by another Mutharika, it is not clear who will unseat Jonathan. What is clear is that Jonathan may not return to office if the status quo remains. Nothing creates fear in African rulers like free and fair elections. This is where Banda’s political demise was marked. Now that next year is an electioneering year in Nigeria, those who bother to look at the pros and cons of things are already speculating that Jonathan may go like Banda.

His government is ridden with corruption - especially the scandal involving billions of dollars as unearthed by the Emir of Kano, His Highness Lamido Sanussi  who is also former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Lamido was sacked for alleged “financial recklessness and misconduct” for leaking the news.  The sacking of Lamido caused a big dent on Jonathan’s administration. Though Sanussi’s revelation is not cashgate, it looks exactly like it and its repercussions are likely to be the same as far as the race for presidency is concerned. Corruption, just as it was for Banda, might trigger the exit of Jonathan.

Apart from corruption, insecurity seems to loom over Nigeria.  The hijacking of over two hundred girls from Chibok, if anything, will go down with Jonathan who failed to stand and guide the nation through this heart-breaking period.

If Jonathan isn’t changing the course of things today, his chances of being elected are slim. His good luck will not save him. Good performance will. If not, he is likely to reap what he sowed come the next general elections. Joyce didn’t rejoice long enough in her tenure; Good luck may not be on the side of Goodluck this time.

By Nkwazi Mhango.