President Edgar Lungu

The PF’s economic record is dismal at best and drudgery at worst. In March 2014 under a caption titled, “Zambia in Free-fall under the Wand of Michael Sata” and published by numerous online newspapers, I lamented at the way the PF’s policy or lack of it was dragging Zambia’s economy down. I had then written, “At the economic front, fiscal and monetary policies of this government continue to slide the country down into doldrums. Some have even suggested that the current Finance Minister and his Bank Governor are too ancient to manage the country's economy in the current dispensation of fast-paced communication and technological effusion.” At the time, Michael Sata was the president and Alexander Chikwanda was his Finance Minister. Fast-forward to 2015, Edgar Lungu is the president and Alexander Chikwanda is still the Finance Minister. The PF are still in power, and Zambia is still falling down – fast – under them.

There is no question that the incumbent lacks a national vision of his own. On or around December 13th, 2014 at a public rally at Mulambwa Ground in Mongu District, he asserted that he would inherit Sata’s vision. And on or around December 5th, 2014 on Radio Phoenix, the incumbent reiterated that, “My vision is to finish Sata's vision because that is the one people voted.” And the Sata’s vision he defends comes under a blanket cover of “On-going PF developmental programs.”
 
Kwacha in Free-fall Again
 
The Zambian currency, the Kwacha, has shrunk from its threshold of K8 per dollar (US) and may fall further and fast to a ridiculous K10 per dollar. If it was a patient in hospital, first, they would be in the intensive care unit, and second, on the electrocardiogram (ECG), and the line on the ECG will be getting flatter and flatter. There is a widened current account deficit because under the PF government, “both the traditional and non-traditional exports have significantly declined…while imports have declined at a slow pace.” Of course, China’s declining economy is impacting every country, including Canada. But that is not an excuse. Fiscal and monetary policies of respective countries matter. For example, Zambia is ill-equipped to fight any slant in global economic movements (such as the US’ central bank raising its interest rates, major global stock markets plummeting, and so on) because the PF policies have shrunk Zambia’s export base and has grown unnecessary imports. Zambia is trying to live on what it cannot afford. To add more salt to the wound, Zambia is again borrowing, and borrowing that is unsustainable.

It is only the rich 20% who ever enjoy the excesses of Zambian exports and the unnecessary imports and borrowing. Hitherto, the PF government continues to ignore the private sector which should be the engine of the economy. Since Alexander Chikwanda became the Finance Minister, he has paid only lip-service to this issue. Chikwanda in September 2015 said, “Zambia needs to learn a lesson from excessive dependence on exporting few commodities. The country should insulate itself from external shocks.”

Ironic enough, the Finance Minister was alluding to the issue of diversification. But what has his government done in more than four years it has been in power to breach that gap? Nothing! It was the PF architect himself, Michael Sata, who said that if talking was an industry, Zambia would be prosperous.  There is talk of a medium-term expenditure framework (2016-2018) and some niceties of placing a cap on domestic borrowing, widening tax-base, and so on. However, this song has been sung before, and mostly during elections. And when they acquire power, the focus will shift to irrelevant priorities.
 
The PF’s economic figures in 2015, under the watch of President Lungu and Chikwanda are worse than under Sata. In 2015 alone, Zambian economy will shrink to 5% instead of the projected 7%. Zambia is expected to have a gaping fiscal deficit of 5.5% instead of the projected 4.6%. Copper earnings will significantly drop to US$2.6 billion. This is almost 29.9% decline in comparison to Sata’s record in 2014 – and Sata was mostly an ailing president! The phrase “copper-rich but poor country” will one day haunt the future of Zambia when it will be “Copper nil and poor country.”
 
The PF government has not made diversification away from copper dependence an overarching policy, and let alone, implement that policy. This should be the first, and perhaps the only preoccupation of any successive government. Zambia has relied on copper since independence. Copper is a diminishing resource and the markets fluctuate. Reliance on copper subjects the country to an unstable economy. The best policy is to create an acceptable and enabling environment for the private sector to compete. Because, historically, government has been in charge of the Zambian economy, the transition from dependence on public sector funding to the private sector enterprise must be initiated by government. GOVERNMENT MUST WEAN ZAMBIANS FROM GOVERNMENT DEPENDENCE THROUGH VISIONARY POLITICS AND RADICAL POLICIES. The PF government is doing very little to move the country forward. 
 
The saddest statement one can read from an economic manager came this week from Chikwanda: “Surely nobody expected China to continue growing at the same level, there was going to be a time when they would finish constructing their roads, office buildings and any other infrastructure and reduce their appetite for our copper and maybe that time has now come.” And that is exactly the point. If Mr. Chikwanda knew all that, what was his government doing to prepare for such times as these? Nothing.
 
Load-Shedding, a Symptom of an Economic Disease
 
Zambia Electricity and Supply Company (ZESCO), the national electricity supply company, is one more example of a nation tied to public-service delivery inefficiencies. Less than 30% of Zambians have access to electricity. And only about 20% of homes have electricity. ZESCO has stated that the cause of power shortages in Zambia has been because “generation capacity has been reduced due to low water levels in the Zambezi River.” This has then led to an unequal load-shedding, where the rich and affluent areas have electricity and the mostly poor and heavily populated townships have erratically-supplied electricity. Again, all people can see and hear is that the Kariba Dam is down, the water levels are low and so on. Justifiably, government is rationing the supply of electricity. Of course, this problem is only a symptom of an economic management system devoid of long-term and ambitious planning. The same argument of dependence on copper and on government comes to play. Electricity supply can be diversified away from dependence on water only; other viable sources of power exist such as wind, solar and so on. But these solutions ought to be put in place way before the problem manifests, not during the problem.
 
Zambia Needs a Leader with an Economic Focus
 
Zambia’s problems are tied to the economy. In fact, every leader who aspires to the presidency must, first and foremost, be planning on how to improve the quality of people’s lives. Chiluba has already solved the democratic problem. Zambia does not need more reshuffles in government or more districts created or more DCs appointments. Zambia does not need more political parties formed or more Rupiah Banda models. And, this is not Lungu-focus; it is PF-focus in reality. President Lungu is a factor because he happens to be the president when Zambia is at its worst economically. He may not even be responsible personally. The problem is with PF economic policies in general. Yet, we cannot forget that the president said that he would inherit Sata’s vision. We argued then against it and we do now. The PF have no clue on what to do. President Lungu does not need to be an economist – he only needs to have sound judgment and be sober. He needs to lead the country – because great leaders are born when their countries go through crises. All great leaders salvage their countries from doldrums because they have a vision – for President Lungu, perhaps it is high time he acquired one. I believe that with a sound vision, right people around him and the help of God, he can lead the country through this economic quagmire!

By Charles Mwewa       
Author: Zambia-Struggles of My People   
[email protected]