The war in Ukraine, the breadbasket of Europe, has significant impacts on food import-dependent countries (such as in Africa) that are still recovering from the aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the perennial challenges of climate change variability and extremes. Overall, the impacts of food trade include disruptions in food supply chains, increases in global energy and shipping costs, closure of ports in affected areas, and limited availability of shipping vessels and containers. This brief discusses the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on disruptions in global food supply chains and implications for food trade in Africa.

Implications of trade disruptions in the Black Sea region for African countries

Given that Russia and Ukraine are major food exporters of major grains (such as wheat, barley and corn) and vegetable oils, the war will directly disrupt global food markets and affect food export patterns. The war directly reduces food exports from both countries affecting global food supplies. Russia and Ukraine are important sources of wheat imports for several countries in Africa, such as Egypt (more than 70 percent), Nigeria and Sudan. In 2020, Egypt and Sudan were some of the largest Russian and Ukrainian wheat importers. African countries that heavily depend on food imports from Russia and Ukraine, especially in North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia), face the greatest risk of not getting their imports from the two countries. The impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are already threatening food availability in countries that depend on grains and other food exports from these two countries (Puma & Konar , 2022).

Considering that Russia and Ukraine are dominant exporters, finding replacement suppliers will not be easy in the short term. The global production shortfalls in food supplies due to drought conditions affecting major foodproducing regions in South America, such as Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay, make it challenging to increase import volumes from alternative sources. Furthermore, the increased demand from countries seeking alternative suppliers and any restrictive export measures by major export countries will significantly affect global food supplies and keep the upward pressure on food prices.

The war-induced disruptions in food production would further affect future food supplies from the conflict-affected areas such as the eastern parts of Ukraine, which is the breadbasket of the country. Most of Ukraine’s wheat (about 35 percent) is grown in the east, where fighting has been ongoing since the outbreak of the war. The uncertainties on food production activities in the conflict-affected areas imply that if the fighting is prolonged, the country’s food production will decrease (especially wheat and corn), negatively affecting global food supplies.

Tight global food supplies will continue to push food prices up with severe impacts on the accessibility of food by the poor in many developing countries. African countries are still grappling to fully recover from multiple shocks that include the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, persistent climate change variability and extremes, and conflict. For example, persistent drought conditions in the East Africa region (such as in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia) further compound food availability and prices in domestic and regional markets.

In Southern Africa, the January edition of the AGRA Food Security Monitor projected dry conditions in the central and western parts of the region, which significantly affected cropping activities and harvest potential at the end of the main cropping season. In addition to the delayed season, parts of the region, Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique were devasted by the Tropical Storm Ana late January, which destroyed livelihoods, infrastructure and agricultural activities. The rainfall conditions have contributed to mixed crop conditions in the ongoing main cropping season and will significantly impact the potential seasonal harvests in the affected areas and the region. With disruptions in global food markets around the Black Sea region inevitable, domestic and regional food prices will continue on an upward trend in areas already experiencing food insecurity and rising food prices.

The magnitude of the war’s effects on the continent is expected to be country-specific, and affect countries with more trading ties. In sum, many African countries trade with the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Maghreb countries (Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia) are the largest importers from the Russian Federation, and Ukraine, followed by Nigeria, Ethiopia, Senegal, Uganda, Kenya and South Africa. Hence, these countries are expected to be the most afflicted by the war in the medium term. With the unfolding of the war that could last for months or more, African Countries are urged to anticipate the effects in their economies. This also implies the need to diversify the markets, build stocks, strengthen regional blocks, and particularly increase intra-African trade to move products within the continent.

Read the full report at AGRA