On January 29, 2025, three landlocked countries namely Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, members of the newly created Alliance of Sahel States (AES), declared their withdrawal from the most influential bloc - Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The year 2025 which marks the 50th year of the establishment of ECOWAS will simultaneously remain in the history of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as the period of their exit from the 50-year-old regional bloc, established by the Treaty of Lagos in May 1975.

As ECOWAS is fractured with an uncertain future, the AES will seemingly grow in strength as the republics of Côte d'Ivoire, Chad, Ghana and Senegal show signs of unswerving support for the newly-created security organisation in the region. Despite broader criticisms and emerging challenges, AES has the capacity to forge expected integration and to tackle existing diverse obstacles while navigating further for strategic external collaboration.

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) was established on September 16, 2023 with the signing of the Liptako-Gourma Charter by the States of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. These countries share the cross-border region of West Africa and the Sahel called “Liptako-Gourma” from which it derives the symbolic name of the Charter. This collective defense bloc aims at countering any military intervention, countering external threat including terrorism and forging economic integration.

Since last year, the AES has focused on structuring projects in the fields of energy, infrastructure, transport and food security. The trio aims to create an economic and monetary union, as well as its own currency which should be based on the natural resources of the member countries in the Confederation.

The collective initiatives undeniably are at the formative stage, fostering consciousness on structuring operations and functional directions notwithstanding the multiple roadblocks from ECOWAS. That however, worthy to indicate here that particular concern emerging from different regional organisations and the African Union underscores the rising assertiveness of AES.

At a glance, Burkina Faso is a driving force, while Mali and Niger have, in practical sense, show the pathways for evolutionary influence. For over a year, their joint effective strategy has been working. Their collective divorce from ECOWAS was an irreversible factor based on the fact that ECOWAS has unprecedented weaknesses and record-breaking failure in its mandate to maintain regional security. In short, the rising insecurity situation has undermined regional cooperation, set the stage for dissatisfaction among the member states. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have attained collective independence and are prepared to form this new forward-looking regional partnership.

ECOWAS and African Union's Reactions

Reactions from both the ECOWAS and African Union (AU) have been 'business as usual' characterized by official administrative statements. The Peacekeeping and Regional Security Commission of ECOWAS say that the remaining members tentatively have agreed to 'keep ECOWAS doors open' by recognizing national passports and identity bearing the bloc's logo from the countries, to continue trade under existing regional agreement, and to continue diplomatic cooperation with the countries.

While the Regional Security Commission has set up a structure to facilitate discussions on these modalities with each of the three countries, its official statement categorically notes that the regional body will continue:

a) Recognizing National passports and identity cards bearing ECOWAS logo held by the citizens of Burkina Faso, the Republic of Mali and the Republic of Niger, until further notice.

b) Treating goods and services coming from the three countries in accordance with the ECOWAS Trade Liberalization Scheme (ETLS) and investment policy.

c) Allowing citizens of the three affected countries to continue to enjoy the right of visa free movement, residence and establishment in accordance with the ECOWAS protocols until further notice.

d) Providing full support and cooperation to ECOWAS officials from the three countries in the course of their assignments for the Community.

The Political, Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union (AU) headquartered in Addis Ababa, capital of Ethiopia, has expressed high-level concern over the deteriorating standing of ECOWAS as a regional bloc and the security situation in West Africa region. The AU condemns the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS. However, its reaction is distinctively similar, under-estimating the long-term repercussions and impact on the developments in the region.

Endowed Natural Resources

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger put together hold tremendous untapped resources. According to various sources, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger territorially share borders and are landlocked countries. They are geographically bio-diverse, with plentiful reserves of gold, manganese, copper and limestone, and other invaluable natural resources. The land mass is huge for traditional agriculture, but public infrastructures are poorly developed across the region of their location. Predominantly, the system of state governance combined with gross lack of finance are the main obstacles to sustaining development.

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have considerable human capital. The 2024 estimates of population have revealed that Burkina Faso has 22.5 million, Mali which is the eighth-largest country in Africa, has approximately 21.9 million people while Niger has 26.5 million. The UN Development Program Report (2024) ranked Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger as the Sahel countries with the lowest category of development index in the world.  The future growth may be sustained by the exploitation of natural resources and that must necessarily be tied to the development of the economy, building infrastructure and focus on reducing poverty in these French-speaking West African countries.

Future Economic Implications

AES has the capacity and commitment to stimulate the economic sectors, particularly in the priority areas of agriculture, livestock, health, and energy infrastructure. Burkina Faso is currently stepping efforts in the agricultural sector, while Mali and Niger are restructuring the roles of foreign players in exploiting mineral resources such as gold and uranium. This allows greater economic and political autonomy in order to strengthen their sovereignty. Perhaps, they will further have the opportunity to pursue more economic policies in line with the existing realities dictated by the political environment and to bolster aspirations of maintaining stability across their landlocked region.

Obviously, the AES is getting oriented towards multi-polarity. By pursuing the principles of multipolarity, the AES could engage in pragmatic win-win partnerships to advance their interests for the purposes of economic development and growth, and stability. The AES collective pledge further requires making collaborative efforts and, in a systematic manner, work towards sustainable development, find better chances for practical solutions to existing economic deficiencies. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have to adopt strategic positions, first, in West Africa, and generally in Africa.

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

The author writes frequently on Africa, Russia and the BRICS.