Many believe the failure of indigenous institutions - those really distorted intuitions left in Africa by its colonialists - can be overcome by gradual development of modern and effective organizations. This view, long propagated by westerners on both the socialist and market side, is dangerous and pernicious.

One only needs to look at Islamic civilization for proof. Once masters of the seas, a civilizing presence in Europe and advanced in science, Islamic civilization has become irrelevant. The grip of institutions that made the Islamic society great in the 11th century refuses to yield, dragging them down in the 21st century.

Although the societies of Western Europe developed some of their basic intuitions through years of debate and discussion, many others came into being through rapid action either at the end of a war or causing a war itself. Moreover, not all of these actions resulted in development. Latin America, for example, with similar basic ideas and history as Western Europe, has failed to develop (with the exception of Argentina, which saw a brief period of prosperity, largely financed by English bankers, from the 1880s until the end of World War I).

As Nicollo Machiavelli said, "the majority of men will not accept new laws and intuitions unless they can perceive a great danger raising, thus the dangers often destroy them before they can reorganize". And Africa’s newest danger is nearing. The west is aging and its economic growth slowing. Soon (10 years for Europe and 15 for America), an extremely large population in these countries will be demanding social insurance pensions. Most western nations work on a pay-as-you-go pension scheme, meaning retired workers are paid with money made by current workers. The inherent failure in this is quite clear. The fund is not actuarially sound, as it will at one time have more liabilities (retired workers) than assets (paying workers). Worse, pension benefits have to be paid out of current tax revenue.

It is estimated that one current worker will be paying for two retired workers. Under such strain, the first casualty becomes foreign spending, including aid and contributions to the IMF and World Bank. With the strangling affect this taxation is likely to have on business and innovation, it is unlikely developed countries will find new sources of revenue, dealing a deathblow to Africa, where these programmes account for a large share of revenue.

An ideal model of development for Africa is Meiji Japan. In 1633, when the Japanese shut themselves off from foreign contact and began implementing a feudal system, they were only slightly behind the Europeans. By 1858, when Commodore Matthew Calbraith Perry of the United States Navy steamed into Tokyo bay demanding that Japanese open themselves up for trade, the industrial revolution had not occurred in Japan. They did not have steamships, railroads or any heavy industries. Americans gave Japan a treaty to sign, opening the country to trade by placing it on a strict policy of free trade, and granting Europeans "Extra Terrestrial rights (meaning, if a European committed a crime in Japan, he could only be tried in a European court").

Seeing the subjugation of other Asian nations, especially the once Dragon of Asia, China, Japan had great fear of European imperialism. A group of eight wise Samurai (men of the warrior class of nobility) realized the entire Japanese society would have to change for the country to remain independent. In 1860 they led a rebellion, overthrowing the Shogun (a hereditary military dictator) and restoring power to the Emperor (kept as a cultural figure), Meiji, a 14-year-old boy. Needless to say, they ruled on his behalf.

By 1871, Japan had undergone a wondrous transformation. Its capital had moved to Tokyo, feudal domains abolished, the country reorganized into prefectures (like provinces or states), a modern government based on Prussia (what became Germany) set-up, and serfdom and special privileges for the dimyo (feudal lords) halted. The country’s economic ideals were captured in the slogan, "Rich Country, Strong Military". By 1875, Japan boasted private property rights, fully functioning railroads, a stock market, and industrial giants like Mitsui Bank, Mitsubishi and Suzuki. The Japanese were not shy about seeking new knowledge from the West. They sent teams abroad to acquire advanced technology, imported foreign specialists and sent merchants to learn the European way of doing business.

By 1880, all class restrictions had been abolished. A new legal code, granting universal suffrage for all men over 21 was enacted, (for good measure, the government handed death sentences to those wearing signs of their positions in the old class structure in public), clans (like tribes) were broken-up, people made to take last names and charity schools opened all over the country.

However, democracy was not introduced in Japan until 1912, as it was feared those elected may reinstate the old ways. Every man in Japan was forced to sign "The Five Articles Oath."

In a 20-year span, Japan was completely transformed, both economically and socially. There is a strong lesson here for Africa: the continent needs a quick transformation, although restructuring society is painful and likely to be met with violent resistance. As Machiavelli said, "give the pain all at once, so that it is not remembered for too long." Japan did not only keep European imperialism away, but also by 1905 it was strong enough to defeat a European power - Russia - in war. That is not to say everyone immediately accepted change. In 1863, there was a major rebellion of Samurai, which was ruthlessly and violently crushed. "Those who benefit from the current order will fight bitterly to preserve it, while those who will benefit from a new order will not fight totally to establish it," said Machiavelli. In the end two of the eight Samurai were killed, but they saved Japan.

The point is, Africans must decisively choose the direction in which they want to go and the institutions they plan to establish. The choice is capitalism along the lines of Hong Kong. If Africans make this choice, they must commit to abolish old intuitions and defend new ones.

Africa needs its own "Five Articles Oath".

If Africa commits to these, there will be no more need for western aid.