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Mutahi Ngunyi’s “Tyranny of Numbers” article - now tyrannizing the unwary in cyberspace - says that the Jubilee Alliance of Uhuru Kenyatta will win the 2013 presidential election in the first round with a substantial majority over the Cord Coalition of Raila Odinga. In contrast to this, numerous opinion polls have consistently placed the CORD Coalition ahead of Jubilee with the most recent poll saying that the election is now a virtual tie. The polls say, in effect, that no party can win this election in the first round. Who is right? The polls, without question. Though Mutahi’s argument has gained traction in certain circles, it is wrong-headed and the numbers on which it rests have been tortured to yield results they cannot sustain.

This article explains the basic errors and spurious conclusions on which the “Tyranny of Numbers” stands. Put simply, the analysis is so flawed Mutahi should refund the money of the client that paid for it.

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By Wachira Maina

The author is a Constitutional Lawyer.