In recent months, international oil prices have been dropping and there is a sense that it’s not a short-term drop. As of the week beginning 6th October 2014, crude oil was less than $95/barrel. What is interesting is that the drop in the oil price is against the backdrop of on-going conflict in the Middle East; issues with supply from Libya; conflict in South Sudan and even the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.  However, the growth in North American crude oil production attributed to shale boom in the US has offset fears of supply disruptions. The U.S. has become the world's largest producer of liquid petroleum and has in recent months, increased daily production relative to the top two oil giants Russia and Saudi Arabia. The plunge in oil prices is manifested in ample inventories, slackening demand and a U.S. dollar trading at multiyear highs.

Oil prices, like many economic variables, tend to be random and unpredictable in the short run but some international factors provide some meaning guide on the trajectory. The prices are predicted to decline to lows of 80-85USD per barrel by the end of this year. Global demand is expected to remain subdued because of weaker-than-anticipated growth in China and Europe. The recent action by Saudi Arabia to cut prices is likely to trigger a price war.  Iran and Libya are expected to bring in more stable volumes to world market and in recent past, new drilling techniques such as hydrofracking should shove up production.

The fall in prices has short-term and long-term implications for Uganda.  In the short term, consumers should be smiling all the way to the pumps but at the same time lead to loss of government revenue. Sadly, though, the pump prices are yet to ease. Limited players in the fuel industry, as well structural, regulatory and institutional weakness, in part explain that. In the long term however, it is not good news for Uganda. The potential recoverable estimates are about 1.4billion barrels, and different estimates at a price of crude at 100 USD per barrel reveal potential annual oil revenues of up to 3bn dollars at peak production.

Like many oil rich developing economies, oil revenues will be increasingly an important financing source for public investment. Any potential shortfall in all revenues will definitely have macro-economic shocks on the economy. For example, during the oil price boom of 2003-06, Angola saved about 60 percent of the incremental increase in oil revenue, but as Oil prices stayed up, leading to the belief that they were permanent, spending increased sharply. From 2006 to 2008, Angola spent 140 percent of its additional oil revenue, more than most other low- and middle-income oil producers.

By 2009, Angola faced growing macroeconomic instability against a backdrop of a significant oil price decline. In the Ugandan context, in the recent past, there has been heightened fiscal (national budget) expansion increasingly funded by the expensive short-term domestic debt and market price external loans. For example, a single project -- the standard railway gauge -- is expected to cost Ugandans 8 billion dollars, 25% more than the current national budget of about 6 billion dollars.  Arguably, this trend is driven by the expected windfall of oil revenues. Taking the spend-as-you-go approach forward could destabilize the economy and lead to the types of boom-bust cycles that many oil-dependent economies have suffered.

Needless to mention is the need to reinforce both the institutional and regulatory capacity in preparation of the windfall. The current legal framework provides for the allocation of future oil revenues to the national budget to be left to the discretion of parliament. The likely risk with this is paramount given the recent trend on the usage of supplementary budgets. In addition, the proposed law does not provide the set-up of the stabilisation fund, which should aim at setting up a mechanism by a government to insulate the domestic economy from large influxes of revenue, as from commodities such as oil. The fund is however envisaged in the regulations of the law.

The aforementioned estimates of oil revenues will not be large enough to be transformative; therefore, it calls for continued efforts to enhance the non-oil tax revenues. Sadly again, Uganda along with Burundi have the lowest tax revenue to GDP in the East African region. This will require innovative measures to enforce compliance with in the large and formal sectors (real estate, business services, hotels and restaurants, education) as well as the informal sector that pay little tax. Oil is often associated with windfall of capital flows, so leakages from aggressive cross-border ‘profit shifting’ will need to be addressed.
 
By Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo
PhD Research Fellow - University of South Africa.