Africa is faced with the biggest dilemma in its history after the Cancun talks failed to make any significant impact at the World Trade Organization. All African member countries are lobbying for increased access of both raw and value added products to markets in rich nations. This comes at a time when Africa's economic activity is estimated to have risen by 5 per cent in 2005 and is predicted to increase by another percentage in the next two years. 

The increase in Africa's economic activity is partly attributable to the entry of China and India as major players in the global economy. China's creation of a market for African raw materials has raised fears that the continent might remain stuck in raw-material export driven economy. Europe, on the other hand is jealously seeking to maintain her old sphere of influence by pushing for a series of Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with African countries. The trade dilemma arises from the fact that both Europe and the Asiatic countries seem not keen to stimulate a value added type of trade relations with Africa.

The upcoming E.U. - Africa summit in Brussels in mid November points at how strategic European policy makers are keen to ensure that they do not loose out on trade issues with or without the WTO. On the other hand, it's quite evident from the responses of African policy makers that they did not have plan-B when they traveled to Hong Kong for the W.T.O meeting. The fire fighting strategy employed by COMESA members when pushing for inclusion of 'strong development component' in order to accept EPAs, and when African countries such as Kenya, employ huge amounts of resources to keep cheap China products out is sure indication of lack of sound strategy. 

Little effort has been employed to maximize diversification of African private sector. African governments have failed to invest in strengthening their business environment and lowering costs of production. Kenya, which by African standards is among the top ten of the most diversified private sector, has remained stuck on the less than 17 points on the index of diversification for the last 10 years. Tanzania scores 21.7 ahead of Kenya and Uganda 7.3 in the 2003 index.

African policy makers ought to recognize the fact that all trade deals with both the emerging and developed economies are done purely for purposes of promoting existing business interests. Africa nations cannot have effective trade talks when they exclude the business community in their strategies. One cannot rely on ill equipped civil servants with nothing to lose, politicians with votes to look for, and Non Governmental Organizations that are agents of Western countries to draw a strategic plan on trade talks. The African business community must wake up and take an active role in suggesting approaches that their civil servants ought to carry whenever they go out to negotiate trade issues. 

An illustration of the poverty in long term strategic thinking can be demonstrated by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Kenya, Uganda and Madagascar are some of the chief beneficiaries in the COMESA group. A closer analysis of the World Clothing Trade shows that Sub Sahara Africa contributes only 1%, Europe 32.2% and China 23.3%. African negotiators gained in the short run in clinching the AGOA deal on trade in clothing and apparels. But in the long run, they put the cotton industry, and future trade deals in a vulnerable position in the sense that they have to keep lobbying for extension of preferential treatment. China and India's aggressive entry into the competition will make it difficult for African negotiators to make any meaningful push with either Europe or U.S.A.  

Africa should be extremely cautious when negotiating with the E.U. and Asiatic countries if it has to diversify industrially and in its exports. It ought to capitalize on Asia's quest for raw materials to accumulate capital geared towards value addition to African products. The option open to Africa at the moment is that of economic integration and specialization. Economic integration will stem the onslaught being staged by Europe and China/India on the African market by ensuring that countries offer a strong negotiating platform that will open a window for processed products leaving Africa. 

Africa can move out of the present trade dilemma by focusing on the long-term in all its decisions. For instance, African negotiators ought to envision an African integrated market system at some point in future. They also have to factor in growth of indigenous African businesses that will be interested to export to developed countries. Business people should put pressure on their local governments to reform the business climate.   

It is important that African businesses take active interest in trade negotiations to arm African civil servants with sufficient data and strategies to engage the international community. It is also important that African business people seek an active role for economic integration of Africa instead of leaving such a noble quest to politicians. Africa should invest in economic integration prior to political integration.