Currently in Kenya, the political divorce involving the UhuRuto marriage is being talked about prominently because of its effects and impacts on the politics of the country. It’s now an open secret that the two Kenyan politicians, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, no longer see eye to eye or enjoy their bromance-cum-dalliance.
What went wrong? Those who know how UhuRuto chimeric and mule-like marriage came into being will agree that it’s a marriage of handiness whose one and only reason was to circumvent ICC encumbrance resulting from the Post-Election Violence of 2007. There was no love between the couple but necessity. After being in bed for about eight years, the duo is no longer interested in marriage or anything close to or like it. They seem hell-bent to sever everything that brought them together. First, the danger that the ICC posed is long gone. Second, the duo has two conflicting agendas: one is working for a good legacy that’ll outlive his power while the other is nursing his presidential ambitions. Third, those who know how such tenuously tricky nuptials are entered will agree that after freeing themselves from the fangs of the ICC, they started working at freeing themselves from each other. This is normal for humans, especially the antagonistic ones. Who wants to always sleep in the same bed with his or her nemesis?
It is important to mention that the likely loser in this tussle seems not to have learnt from Kenya’s political narrative. I once heard him say that subjects such as History need not to be taught in universities. Now he needs it to help him swim this muddier water. Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel once put it, “we learn from history that we do not learn from history.”
Kenya’s political history shows that no VP’s ever made it to the Presidency except by way of accident as it happened for former President Daniel arap Moi. Mot took the reins after his boss, Jomo Kenyatta, died in office. The second VP to become president was Mwai Kibaki whose way to power had something to do with an accident. This accident was Moi’s arrogance and deception of many politicos in his party that saw him settle for the current president to inherit his office. Kenyans decided to punish Moi by refusing his protegee.
Of Kenya’s ten VPs since independence, only two beaome presidents. The rest were betrayed by their bosses namely Kenyatta, Moi and Kibaki. Who knew that Kenyatta would roast Jaramogi who forsook his chance of becoming Kenya’s first president and offered it to Kenyatta to end up being betrayed? Who thought that Moi would betray George Saitoti the man who’d never raised voice to his boss despite being highly educated than him? Who thought that Kibaki would prefer Uhuru––the person he beat in the 2002 elections, became the third president of Kenya thereof––to Kalonzo––whom he abandoned? Who’d think that Kibaki tosha––the mantra-cum-meme Odinga used to propel Kibaki to power––would be turned into Raila toka or Raila out?
When it comes to trust, you can trust everybody except a politician. Can Uhuru gambol Ruto and support Raila Odinga the person he ‘conquered’ in the last elections? The rolling antics, gambits and theatrics between Ruto and Uhuru speak volumes about what will happen come Kenya’s 2022 elections. If Uhuru successfully used Ruto to become president, Ruto seems to have failed to use Uhuru to become president.
In a nutshell, for Ruto to make it presidency, he needs to go to the drawing board and wait for the 2027 elections. More importantly, there are three things Ruto can cash on or be cagey about. One, he must wish he’d be alive physically and politically that time. Two, he must still be politically germane at that time. Three, like it was for Kibaki and his ascending to presidency, he’d take it easy. This isn’t the end of the world. More blessed are those who listen than those who talk. Listen to and seriously take this for your survival––and ignore it at your peril.
By Nkwazi Mhango
Mhango is a lifetime member of the Writers' Alliance of Newfoundland and Labrador (WANL) and author of over 20 books among which are Africa Reunite or Perish, 'Is It Global War on Terrorism' or Global War over Terra Africana? How Africa Developed Europe.