Politics largely gravitates around interests. The history of politics is replete with references to why enmity in politics is illusionary. Kenya is a perfect case study of politics that lacks in morality, conscience, dignity, and high standards. No wonder Kenya is struggling with the same issues it was battling at independence: disease, poverty, and ignorance. Who is to blame? First, the political leadership that is greedy and pursues self-interests at the expense of the common good, hence using politics as an avenue to riches. Second, a citizenry that is often threatened by fear-mongering and primitive tribal-based politics.

A cornered president William Ruto, was recently forced to embrace his one-time ally and leader during the formative years of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. This was out of desperation. It is contentious to ascertain who approached the other first, between Ruto and Odinga. I guess Ruto made the first move. An important fact to note is that Odinga’s usurping of the youth-led revolutionary moment to consolidate his riches and those of his henchmen was not a surprise. Odinga had earlier cut a deal with Ruto to contest for the chairperson’s position of the African Union Commission (AUC). The award of key ministries to ODM leaders justifies that Odinga may have demanded these after being approached by Ruto to help him consolidate his power.

Odinga’s Pro-Democracy Credentials and Back-end Deals with Presidents

Odinga’s political union with Ruto has watered down his pro-democracy credentials. These are the sunset years and Odinga understands that he stands no chance of ever being Kenya’s president. He is after cementing the legacy of his four-decade political career by attempting to clinch the coveted AUC chairperson’s post. On the streets, on social media…” Odinga took advantage of the blood shed by the youth.” Elitist, progressive-minded, youthful Odinga’s supporters have certainly withdrawn their support for the veteran politician.

How does Odinga benefit from these political unions? Politics is dictated by interests and as stated for centuries, there are no permanent friends and enemies in politics. Kenyans easily forget that Odinga is a billionaire and one of the wealthiest people in Kenya. We never really care that much to question Odinga’s acquisition of wealth. He is a hard worker but his political stature and networks earned him these riches. It is documented in several sources that Odinga benefited from the union with Daniel Moi after the 1997 elections by acquiring the controversial molasses plant in Kisumu. Odinga, however, denies this in his autobiography, The Flame of Freedom.

Let’s crack this further. Moi appointed Odinga as Minister for Energy post-1997 elections. Guess who has interests and investments in the gas industry? Odinga’s East Africa Spectre, a leading manufacturer of liquified petroleum gas cylinders, serves domestic and international markets. The son of Kenya’s first vice president Oginga Odinga insists in his autobiography that his union with Moi was a political strategy to make a second stab at the presidency in 2002.

Most people claim the formation of the Grand Coalition Government after the 2007/2008 post-election violence was Odinga’s political union with Mwai Kibaki. I strongly differ. Kibaki rigged the 2007 elections which Odinga won. I will excuse Odinga as this was a forced political marriage with Kibaki. This is one of my justifications why Kibaki’s presidency is overrated.

The March 2018 ‘handshake’ between Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta was a strategic blunder for Odinga’s presidential ambitions. First, some of his supporters believed he had betrayed them as several protesters lost their lives in anti-government demonstrations. Second, Odinga embraced Uhuru, a president who seemed not to care about consolidating his power. Anyway, Ruto’s presidency is an outcome of Odinga’s political short-sightedness.

There are a few critical questions at this point. Has Odinga ever intended to win the presidential elections? Has he been running for the elections not to win but to protect his interests? Is Odinga’s pro-democracy legacy overrated? While Odinga’s pragmatic approach to winning power is somehow understandable, his taking advantage of the death of youth due to the use of excessive force by an incompetent regime dilutes his pro-democracy credentials.

Ruto’s Project-Launching Spree: ‘Gen Z’ Are Winners

One of Ruto’s economic advisors who swims in bourgeoisie intellectualism and lives in an ivory tower recently claimed that ‘Gen Z’ challenged Ruto to a political contest. David Ndii, probably the most arrogant human south of the Sahara, claimed Ruto has pulled the rug under the Kenyan youth and is on the ground consolidating his support. The Ruto hater turned romanticist of the amorphous, caricatured bottom-up economic model in his usual dismissive tone chided the ‘Gen Z’ for being busy trolling the incompetent administration on social media instead of focusing on 2027. Well, Ndii intentionally forgets his role as troller-in-chief having dismissed the mobilisation on social media prior to the commencement of the protests on June 18 and even more notably on June 25. In June, Ndii sensationally labeled the youth on social media calling for reforms as ‘digital wankers’ who are cowardly to take to the streets.

Anyway, he is a typical example of a court jester who entertains the king despite an impending political disaster. The fact that President Ruto has traversed villages launching menial projects demonstrates the power of the people. It is funny that Ruto is consolidating his power - anyway, politics is about optics and PR - but of course by mobilising artificial crowds. Optics, PR, and propaganda are effective when running election campaigns; running a government and improving the lives of the people demands competence and meritocracy. On this, Ruto has failed.

In 2021, I purchased and read a book - Why Do So Many Incompetent Men Become Leaders? The author deconstructs mediocre leaders and sub-par leadership. For instance, the author points out that we have great tolerance for people who are not as talented as they think. He goes on to state: “What it takes to get the job is not just different from, but also sometimes the reverse of, what it takes to do the job.” These are the sub-par metrics demonstrated by Ruto’s leadership. Ruto seems not to believe that Kenyans can protest against his leadership and demand his resignation. He overrates his importance. He demeans the intelligence of Kenyans.

The project-launching spree will do little to change the course of a popular movement. A movement that is only concerned with high-quality governance and not the creation of wabenzis - mannerless, greedy, grandiose, arrogant politicians competing on who vomits quicker and heavily on Kenyans’ heads. Do not confuse a strategic retreat with loss or surrender. The launching of dead and menial projects is akin to running on quicksand. And even before the project-launching rendezvous, the unarmed, peaceful ‘Gen Zs’ won given the cowardly use of excessive force by the security apparatus against them.

Aluta Continua! Of, For, and By the People

Earlier, I noted that President Ruto overrates or overestimates his capabilities, competence, and popularity - perhaps not as talented as he thinks. The popular, youth-led movement has not been politically nutmegged by the unholy political alliance of Willian Ruto and Raila Odinga. Here are the reasons why the ‘Gen Z’ movement is not yet done.

Economically, Kenya is far from creating decent, meaningful jobs. The Kenyan economy is mounted on weak fundamentals. Our economy can only continue creating conditions for informal, unsustainable jobs meaning that unemployment, underemployment, and poverty will thrive. These are issues that need concrete, long-term plans, and of course, killing corruption. Where do you expect these hungry, unemployed mobs to go? Exported to work as casuals in the Middle East? Drive boda bodas? Be mama mbogas? Reincarnate themselves as fool-proof hustlers? A hungry man is an angry man.

A huge debt burden, if still poorly managed, will keep the flames of the revolution lit. Major weaknesses that Ruto’s advisors are not burning the midnight oil to sweet-talk him to get over is his know-it-all attitude, detest for history, and probably his pococurante nature of not reading widely and deeply. Tax hikes will never propel developing, third-world economies to prosperity. A poorly managed, ballooned public debt is a harbinger for additional tax hikes commandeered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Ruto-led administration. But we need to be honest; tax increases are not the only way to manage public debt. Ruto should ruthlessly kill corruption and renegotiate a significant number of existing debts. Otherwise, further tax hikes mean more poverty and you can guess the consequences.

Related to the above, Ruto should cut unnecessary spending. He has poorly performed on this. It seems the floodgates to quick riches and opulence were opened to his cronies as soon as he put down the sword and the constitution. One of Ruto’s pathways to failure is his preference for political expediency at the expense of competence and good results. I wonder about the extent of political debts he owes given his excessively large team of advisors and numerous hangers-on. Their time to eat perhaps! A consequence of untamed spending coupled with a huge debt burden is a higher incidence of poverty, and you expect the ‘Gen Zs’ to surrender…It is naive to think as such.

Perhaps the final reason; the ‘Gen Zs’ are not cowardly, or they are rather more exposed and woke than their parents. And why do we have to be threatened when we express our dissatisfaction with poor governance? A culture we need to kill in Kenya and Africa is obeying those in power. Such a cowardly, embarrassing piece of advice. Aren’t we taxpayers? Why would a politician think the people are right and matter a great deal during elections, and the same people are perceived as enemies when demanding better leadership? Aluta continua…

The writer - Sitati Wasilwa - is an analyst of geopolitics and governance. His interests include armed conflict, foreign policy, power politics, political economy, leadership, and strategy.