The debate on the centrality of democracy in promoting socioeconomic development is a chicken-and-egg conundrum. Most countries pursued development without embracing democratic institutions. Some of these countries later turned to establishing and strengthening their democratic institutions primarily after making significant development strides. Ha-Joon Chang meticulously demonstrates the nexus between democracy and economic development in his book, Kicking Away the Ladder.

Chang certifies two inescapable truths. First, the so-called developed countries were not democratic while developing. Second, the narrative of democracy as a pre-condition for economic development has been propagated by Western countries and multilateral institutions. It is a narrative that fits the frame of their global geostrategic interests.

I have made it a habit in my policy and political discourses to be guided by the prevailing context. Democracy is not key to economic development. However, this does not imply that authoritarianism is the absolute pathway to realising development. There is always the temptation to justify this by immortalising benevolent dictatorship. But it is unfair to validate benevolent dictatorship if at all a country has collectively approved Western-styled democratic institutions and practices. Obviously, this leads to another critical debate on whether Western democracy suits Africa and other non-Western countries.

We are accustomed to the absoluteness and cleavages of Western democracy. I mean, we may not have a better alternative at the moment. Though countries such as Botswana have proven that what could be thought of as Western democracy may as well have been practiced in African societies in the pre-colonial era. Botswana’s kgotla system demonstrably justifies this.

All East African countries have democratic or quasi-democratic institutions. The setup of these institutions is heavily Westernised. However, the democratic space in the region has been shrinking in recent years, particularly in Kenya and Tanzania. No surprises for Uganda and Rwanda as authoritarian tendencies remain as firm as they have always been under the long-term presidencies of Yoweri Museveni and Paul Kagame, respectively. There is not so much to anticipate in terms of democratic growth and development in these two countries.

Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu has proven to be a good student of his predecessor John Magufuli. President Suluhu has increasingly become authoritarian over the last year. Her agenda of Reconciliation, Resilience, Reform, and Rebuild (4Rs) is pretty much a package of hot air. Police brutality is a norm under her administration. Harassment and arbitrary arrests of opposition leaders and other political dissidents are rife under her watch. Political-related abductions are part of her administration’s modus operandi.

President Suluhu has subtly proven to be incompetent and intolerant in the game of power just like Magufuli. Both seem to have a very wrong perspective of attempting to achieve development by oppressing their opponents. But these gimmicks are strategically aimed at consolidating power. In Suluhu’s case, she has swiftly appointed and quickly dismissed high profile personalities.

In July 2024, she hastily revoked the appointment of senior executives in state corporations in the communications sector. In the same month, she fired two ministers; January Makamba (Foreign Minister) and Nape Nnauye (Information and ICT). Makamba served as Foreign Minister for 11 months and was Suluhu’s third appointee in the ministry since taking over from Magufuli. And there have been rafts of Cabinet reshuffles in her three-year rule. The Tanzania Intelligence and Security Services (TISS) has had three Director Generals since January 2023; quite an erratic turnover.

Kenya is an obvious case of fast-receding democratic gains in two years under the Kenya Kwanza coalition. The nightmarish memories of KANU and Daniel Arap Moi’s incompetent and authoritarian rule are back. Excessive use of police force, extrajudicial killings, abductions, torture, detention without trial, and fabricated charges are currently common. Inhumane tactics are deployed against the backdrop of persisting calls for better governance.

The highly publicized Kenya Kwanza coalition manifesto – The Plan – has proven to be what the progressives initially thought of it: A flowery piece of excessively cheap jewelry. The fight against corruption is a lost cause. The hastened withdrawal of high-profile corruption cases and closure of files by the Director of Public Prosecutions in the last two years affirms this. Consider the wealth accumulation of Kenya Kwanza-affiliated politicians and cronies. The recent vetting of Cabinet Secretary nominees is a microcosm of questionable wealth accumulation under this administration.

The Suluhu and Ruto administrations have many times accused external forces when questioned about their anti-democratic poses. Recently, President Suluhu criticised Western nations for calling her out on muzzling political dissidents. This does not mean that the West is spotless with regard to supporting authoritarian regimes. In Kenya, the West has been cagey in its condemnation of the brutality meted out to innocent young people in the wake of the pro-reform protests. The creation of imagined enemies is an outcome of political leaderships that detest accountability.

Consolidation of political power can occur without endangering the fundamental rights and freedoms of opponents. This requires the mastery of the emotional and intellectual pathways of the game of power. Anything short of this denotes incompetence.

Democracy is certainly not a prerequisite for economic development. But it shields the people from the ill motives of demagogues and megalomaniacs. A Changian view may detest democracy as a vanguard for solid development. However, authoritarianism sets ideal conditions for extractive economic and political institutions. As solidly demonstrated by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson in the book, Why Nations Fail, extractive institutions beget poor economic development. No coincidence that poverty rates in East Africa are barely decreasing almost six decades after independence.

By Sitati Wasilwa

The author writes and speaks on geopolitics and governance.