Fragmentation of Sudan Looms

Published on 25th February 2025

From the first day of the outbreak of the cursed April 15th war, we said that neither of the warring parties could achieve a decisive military victory and that prolonging the war would lead to serious risks that would jeopardize the country’s very existence.

When we raised the slogan “No to war” and called on the parties to go to the negotiating table, those who advocated for continuing death, hunger, and displacement attacked us and accused us of being loyal to the Rapid Support Forces because the balance of power on the ground at that time favoured them. Because our moral and political stance was firm, we did not budge an inch despite the campaigns of blackmail and accusations of treason.

After the army regained control of large areas of land that had been under the control of the Rapid Support Forces in Sennar, Al Jazeera, and Khartoum, our call for a ceasefire and the necessity of negotiations continued. However, the army’s progress emboldened the advocates of war, increasing their enthusiasm to continue the destruction and displacement, with some even declaring, “We will decisively settle it with weapons!”

We said from the first days of the fighting that the greatest danger to the country is not the army’s tactical retreats, but the continuation of the war itself, because it will lead to increased social division, harmful foreign intervention, and the dominance of violence, which in turn will likely lead the country down the path to division and fragmentation.

The de facto authority in Port Sudan, which is backed by the National Congress Party, the Islamic Movement, and armed movements, has made extremely dangerous decisions that have exacerbated the factors of social and political division, prompting the other warring party and other groups to move towards forming a parallel authority, whose charter was launched today in the Kenyan capital.

Any sane person must realize the great danger inherent in the existence of two authorities in one country. Regardless of how unlikely the parallel authority’s success may seem in terms of international recognition and resources, the continuation of the war will make it a de facto reality, forcing many parties to engage with it out of practical necessity.

One of our intractable problems is the failure to learn from history and the inability to draw conclusions from it. A prime example is the secession of the South, which began with a small demand for a federal system of government and gradually escalated due to indifference, lack of political will, and a failure of national vision until we woke up from our complacency to find the South a “sister state”!

The same process that occurred with the South is being repeated today at an even faster pace, while the sowers of discord remain in their old delusions, spreading the poison of hatred and propagating lies that prey on the emotions of ordinary people, promising them a swift end to the war, after which the country will return to its previous state, or even a better one, under a government dominated by ideological, tribal, and regional militias!

Our country is sliding rapidly towards the abyss of division, and our only salvation lies in quickly stopping the war by returning to the negotiating table at the earliest opportunity. It is clear that a decisive victory by either side is impossible, and that any territorial gains should be a greater incentive to enter negotiations, not to continue fighting. The advocates of war will bear the responsibility for the dangerous consequences of its continuation, primarily the fragmentation of the country’s unity.

By Babikir Faisal,

Unionist Alliance Leader.


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