The ANC, South Africa's ruling party and the oldest Liberation movement on the continent,  ended its controversial Congress and predictably  elected  former Vice President, Zuma, as their leader which ipso facto will make him the Presidential candidate of the Party in General elections due in 2009. He defeated his former Boss and current President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki.

Only those who have not been following the battles closely enough or those hoping against hope could have expected a different outcome. Some of us have been so consumed by our own ideological prejudices, sense of 'decency' and 'what is proper' that we ignored the national and local dynamics of the power play.  I am not sure how many people apart from President Mbeki's most loyal worshippers and groupies, inside South Africa, are weeping for Mbeki getting his comeuppance.

Even some of the more honest and less sheepish of his admirers had not been sure of his wisdom in pursuing his third term bid to the floor of the congress but they were all sidelined for not following the whim of the 'great leader'. Outside South Africa, fewer people may be bothered by his defeat but more anxious about what  the Zuma Presidency may mean given all that people believe they know about (mostly unpalatable in polite circles).

President Mbeki is one of those leaders that many find it difficult to warm to. He is first and foremost an intellectual and he never misses any instance to let you know. He takes himself so seriously that he is generally perceived as being arrogant. Not long ago I was involved in trying to set up a Panel of Heads of state to interface with CSO in an AU pre Summit programme. Mbeki was one of the leaders we had invited.  Another Head of State we had invited refused to accept our invitation because he said he could not share a platform with Mbeki whom he accused of always talking down to him.

His intellectual aloofness, statist managerial style and authoritarian technocracy (except where his loyalists are concerned) combine to make him at best, respected but never quite loved either within the ANC or outside of it. Thabo must have calculated that since he could not match Madiba the Saint, his best option was to become a Philosopher King. Unfortunately he exaggerated this claim and needlessly engaged himself in unnecessary debates and controversies which may have been more suited for academic faculties than the Presidency. Even when his general critique and arguments were correct, his penchant for having the last say and even overstating his case unnecessarily lose him support. The most famous of course is his view on HIV/Aids. His linking Aids to poverty was correct. He ruffled not a few feathers in the HIV/Aids industry and advocacy.

He should have stopped there. But that's not Thabo 'Mr. know All’ Mbeki’s style. He proceeded to turn himself into a Medical scientist and prey to all kinds of 'alternative science' forums to prove himself right. Subsequently he became notorious internationally and nationally as a figure of both scorn and ridicule as an Aids denialist! It reached ridiculous levels of people becoming so fearful to mention HIV/Aids in case it is misconstrued as an attack on the President. The President is not elected to be chairman of a faculty or head of a debating club. He or she is in office to deliver on bread and butter issues to the citizens.

But Thabo thinks that his intellectual force alone (reinforced by state powers) will win all arguments and cow his opponents. He does not accept defeat or admit where and when he is wrong. This arrogance he shares with Tony Blair, thankfully now banished to the debris of Israeli impunity in the Middle East. The same arrogance that forced a previously grateful Labour party, fearfully loyal MPs and an adoring nation (never have they seen such a likeable Labour Leader) to get rid of Blair is finally showing Thabo the exit door in South African politics.

Zuma is just the beneficiary of a groundswell of opposition to the President's authoritarianism, intellectual and political intimidation of opponents and delusions of invincibility.  Those who are concentrating on the many weaknesses of Zuma are missing this point. People hate Thabo more than they like Zuma. In a bizarre way, Thabo's attacks on Zuma have lionized the man just like  Obasanjo's attacks on his Deputy, Atiku Abubakar, dubiously turned the man into a hero among the many forces opposed to Obasanjo's sad term elongation. It was not that some of the charges against Atiku were not true but the politics of the persecution made many people to overlook them. This is the same with Zuma.

But beyond the personalities involved, there are many important lessons to learn from President Thabo Mbeki's defeat. One, it is indeed true that all politics is local. It is the ANC members and later the ordinary voters of South Africa who are the employers of Thabo and Zuma no matter what anyone thinks of both of them. Two, although a democratic process may not necessarily produce a democratic outcome or the best candidate may  not even win, the essence of a democratic process includes the right of free peoples to make their own mistakes with a certainty that they can correct them, if and when necessary. Three, Leaders do not own the party, government or country. Four, mere intellect alone does not make one a good / popular leader otherwise Trotsky would have defeated Stalin; Al Gore would have obliterated George Bush and probably save the US from global hatred and the World unnecessary escalation of every conflict to terrorism.

Five, in many African countries there is always this argument about ‘illiterates’ in political contests. We do not mind 'illiterates' voting for us 'the educated' but somehow we are not willing to accept that they can vote for themselves too. Because Zuma did not possess higher formal qualifications, Mbeki's people disparage him as an 'illiterate'. This man was ANC's Chief of Intelligence inside the country. He was elected Vice President of the Party and the country. Is the ANC so cynical a party to elect an illiterate? Why do we attack illiterates in a situation like ours where still many of our citizens do not possess even the little education that Zuma has?

Six, in the specific case of South Africa,  the Thabo-Zuma axis betrays an ideological schism within the ANC  between those for whom liberation has delivered prosperity (unfortunately a minority) and those left outside the rainbow (the majority); conflict between those who remained at home and those relatively better educated/privileged returnees from outside; but also  growing discontent about historical ethno-regional imbalances within the movement and the country. The class struggle is alive even if consumerism and neo liberal discourse may disguise or distort it.

One final lesson for all African leaders is that the era of tinkering with Party processes and constitution of the country is winding down across the continent. People want leaders with limited terms who retire to do other things for the country, the continent and the world instead of just finding ways of hanging on. It is a victory for democracy. I am sure many Africans would have wished that their ruling parties are real / vibrant political party like the ANC where the wish of the people rather than the personal will of self appointed cabals decide who gets what, when and how.

As the succession battles raged in the past three years, I used to deflate the ebulient optimism of some of my ex-comrades, now bourgeois and new rich of South Africa by observing that since their first President was a Saint and the second one a Philosopher king, the next one will be something that rhymes with Weep! For their sake and ours I really hope I am not right.