Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud                         Photo courtesy

The benchmark for the enormous “political capital” of president Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud, the 56-year-old former peace activist, is not only the near mandate votes (190 votes) he received from the members of the 275-strong law makers, but also the full endorsement by the Somalis all over and the International Community, Washington DC, and the UN.

To get to Ken Menkhaus’ positive tipping point, the next few steps that President Hassan takes to balance regional groupings and steam up his diplomacy boat, however, is worth the watch.  His skills to carefully use his newly acquired “political capital” and sort out  the murky national and international issues may ease or complicate his political life for the next four years.

Delivering on Security

Corruption, good governance and large scale social and regional reconciliation are brimming and pressing hard on the new President’s neck.  The most immediate issue President Hassan faces is neither the economy nor the delivery of badly needed social services and food aid to 2.1 million distraught and starving nationals; but security.

In the most practical timeframe, he needs to at best defeat or at minimum contain Al-Shabaab‘s military might sooner than later.  Al-Shabaab was brazen enough to send a suicide bomber attack to aim at president-elect Hassan’s life while meeting with the Kenyan Foreign Minister only two days into his victory lap. Without security, one may argue, the hope laden post transitional federal government of Somalia can’t or may not even make a dent on the humongous challenges the country faces.  With secure cities and borders, the rest of the issues are more technical in nature and can be ameliorated in time. 

In the near future, he should find out military and tactical ways to possibly confine Al-Shabaab operations only to areas far removed from population centers of Mogadishu, Kismayo, Biadhabo, Marka, and create secure passage ways for food delivery to the starving populace.

The president is keenly aware of this challenge.  In an Interview he gave to Robyn Kriel of NECA, he said that the most pressing challenge to him is, “security, security, and security.”  He eloquently borrowed a phrase from the location theory of economics that says it is “location, location, location,” that determines profit, a familiar concept to his Western admirers.   In this case, it is “security, security, and security” that can profit the Somali nation.

The President’s prioritization of security as the number one agenda is at  par with what Kwame Nkrumah said when his nation was about to get its independence from England. Asked how he would prioritize political independence with the dire need for economic growth, he said that he would achieve “political independence” and then seek “the kingdom of economic independence.”

Designating security as his top priority, the President has made the right diagnosis.  The details of how he will approach this key issue may invite friends and foes  alike as he faces his first one-hundred days of his administration.

Regionalism and the Politics of Picking the Prime Minister

Whoever the President picks up for the premier position could be a good lead on how he delivers to the mechanics of regional power balance within his country and without, as the latter involves engaging and redefining his relation with Ethiopia and Kenya in the next four years.

The President is expected to balance Somalia’s regional groupings and the dictates of power sharing on the so-called 4.5 formula, where four  major groupings (Hawiya, Darood, Dir and Digil Mirifle) share the top seats of the government.  So far, the Darood and the collection of the Dir groupings are keenly watching where they fit in his upcoming administration and the selection of the next Prime Minister.

The regionalist view of political apportioning may also be weighed against the practical politics that suddenly and unexpectedly propelled President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed into office.  President Hassan won because others decided to coalesce around his candidacy.

Since electoral-based system of governance is based on “give” and “get,” it remains to be seen how he will relate to politicians who gave him the badly-needed votes in the last round of the election.Will he conveniently choose a lapse of memory and pick another Islamist who has not contributed  anything to his current victory?  Time will tell.

If President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud is thinking of a future beyond the impending four years, he must reach out to those who made his victory possible.  Doing so will help him craft a coalition of tomorrow’s political party representing both regional and electoral interests.

Electoral politics and the question of regional groupings and their legitimate political aspirations should weigh heavily on his selection of the next prime minister. In the past, the top positions (president and premier) always went to the two regional groupings of Hawiya and Darood, alternatively.  Although there are demerits, the merits of regional balance far outweighs the demerits.  How he handles the regionalist view when it comes to the selection of the next prime minister may help or hurt him as he travels on a raucous road to recovery ahead.  In the end, he has to find a way to line up the regionalist view with those who gave him votes.

Diplomatic Web of Confrontation vs. Constructive Engagement

Any military prospect to defeat Al-Shabaab  is not at this juncture in the hands of Somalis but in the hands of AMISOM troops and its neighbors, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia, two countries with complicated relationship with his fractured nation.  The other major factor that further complicates the security issue is the Western nations, including the US and EU members, who incidentally hold the purse and pay the wages of the AMISOM troops in exchange for unfettered interference in the affairs of the country.  In exchange, the West is allowed to field its spies freely; there are about four hundred CIA operatives inside Mogadishu.

The presence of AMISOM and the International community’s (IC) interference in the affairs of this broken nation is attracting criticism. Most critics point out the losses or “collateral damage” sustained by the residents of Mogadishu who for years suffered indiscriminate shelling, or have been caught in the cross fire.

Another source of AMISOM and IC criticism is symbolism. Most Somalis, in particular those in Mogadishu, feel less comfortable with AMISOM bodyguards giving all vital services to the symbols of their nation – that is,  service to their president and his family at Villa Somalia and at local government offices, including the national airport.

However, there are those who hail the tangible gains so far made under AMISOM.  A modicum of security gains have been registered in Mogadishu, thus making possible for Somalia’s newly seated law makers elect President Hassan  inside Mogadishu – the first time since 1967; Kismayo is on the verge of changing hands in favor of Kenyan army; and Al-Shabaab was ejected from Mark in the past two weeks.

Thus, the debate around the AMISOM issue and the international community’s involvement in the affairs of Somalia mirrors that proverbial irreconcilable contradictory adage of life itself - that “the glass is half-full versus half-empty.”

President Hassan is the right man to have productive dialogue and conversation with critics who had adamantly opposed AMISOM’s presence, or the International Community’s role in his country. Most of such criticism was often led by those who largely make the political base of the new president.

His diplomatic relationship with Ethiopia and Kenya are also of particular significance to his potential success or failure.  These two neighboring countries have existential interests  in Somalia and are unlikely in the foreseeable future to wash off their hands of the affairs of Somalia.

The challenge the new President faces is how to balance the views between those who want to eject both countries of the country’s political affairs and borders immediately, with those who want to constructively engage them. Some groups in the Diaspora have made the Ethio-Kenya involvement in Somalia as the defining factor of right and wrong.  Again, this is a classical conflict between realists and idealists in politics.

On the other hand, the fact that the recently nominated Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Haile Mariam Desalegn, a protégée of the late Meles Zenawi and a member of the hitherto oppressed and enslaved Walayta nationality, visited Mogadishu for the inauguration of Hassan’s presidency could be read as an indication of how much diplomacy is important to both sides.

Not striking the right cord on the deliverance of security, the selection of his premier and whether he chooses diplomacy of confrontation vs. constructive engagement towards Ethiopia and Kenya seem the most immediate challenges upon which he needs to ponder. He probably needs to reflect on the Democratic quality of the late Aden Osman, the religiosity and calmness of the late Abdirashid A. Sharmarke, and the political ingenuity of the late Mohamed Haji Ibrahim Egal.

If politics is the art of possibilities, Somalis see the possibility of regaining their nationhood in this President.  Broadening his political base and carefully using his “political capital” could prove the last factor for our deliverance.

By Faisal A. Roble
Email: [email protected]