Considering the rate at which Africa is developing, it is argued that the continent is headed to become the next success story and world power. The continent has the resources, the labor and the market. So, why not? After all, everyone is almost positive about it. The Chinese have proved to us that it is possible.

On the other hand, some have argued that what is actually happening in Africa is far away from sustainable economic development. They  say that  there  are serious structural challenges that sub-Saharan countries are yet to address.  It is misleading to generalize economic progress in Africa as a whole since as countries like Botswana and Rwanda are tremendously growing, others like the Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan are still burning in armed violence. Democracy is still under trial in most of these countries with staggering institutional capacity.

The discussion on development and governance in Africa is a cocktail of issues. While there is progress, inherent myriad challenges need to be addressed. For example, sub-Saharan Africa is still home to repressive governments; high poverty levels; economic inequality; and aid dependency. Leadership or presidency is still highly personalized.

These ailments do not mean that Africa is stagnated in terms of development and democracy. We must tread carefully lest we lose focus and fail to inject sobriety in our analyses of Africa. We should not let our excitement lead us to conclude that the nature of Africa’s economic progress is likely to be comparable to that of China, Singapore or South Korea. If such a critical position is observed, we may answer popular questions such as: is Africa rising at last? Is Africa the next economic hub of the world? Is Africa finally overturning the resource curse into a blessing?

For such questions to be tackled, our focus should be based on a number of factors. One, is the development or democratic progress made being institutionalized?  Are governance structures predatory, repressive or democratic? How effective are these structures in ensuring equitable distribution of economic gains made so far?

Some of the countries exemplified as making good economic strides are the most unequal societies. A few rich individuals own more than half of the country’s resources and wealth. Poverty levels and unemployment rates are high. The cost of living is skyrocketing. Corruption has become a daily venture. Instruments of justice only work for those in a position to offer illegal fees. Appointments to public offices are dominated by ethnic calculations. Insecurity is on the rise. Rebel activities and organized gangs have formed shadow states. There is no access to clean water and affordable medicare. Weak institutions can be seen in Tanzania, Angola, Cameroon, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Uganda, Burundi, The Sudan, Ethiopia and the Republic of South Sudan, among others.

Secondly, what is the nature of democratic leadership in various countries? Democratic structures are related to socioeconomic and political development. A democratic state is likely to be well governed, strong and less prone to conflict. A democratic government is likely to develop effective channels of getting feedback from the public on the working of its public policies, and be in a position to review its performance. It should be in a position to develop effective channels for conflict resolution and independent institutions such as an electoral body and the judiciary. In a democracy, ethnic animosity can be addressed by ensuring equitable distribution of resources.

Sub-Saharan Africa has made a progress in ensuring democratic governance since 1990s. Almost none of sub-Saharan Africa countries is under monolithic party politics. Elections are performed after every five years and many of these countries have seen peaceful transition in their political leadership. Most states have either tried to adopt democratically inspired constitutions or are struggling to do so.

Some may challenge my correlation of development to regime type, and argue that the Rwandan government or Asian tigers did not witness positive economic transformation under democracy. I believe that democracy is the best contemporary model of good governance. No wonder, western states have emerged stronger in international politics and trade than dictatorial regimes in the Middle East or semi-autocratic regimes such as Russia and those in Africa. Secondly, democracy has proved to be the only model that consolidates and sustains institutions. Through participatory politics, institutions in democratic model develop stronger and more appropriate than in dictatorial or semi-dictatorial regimes that have low feedback mechanism from the public.

The developmental dictatorship possibly being witnessed in Rwanda and  Asian tigers is only needed at the earlier stages of nation-building,  in the face of weak institutional dispensation; to establish necessary institutions, create development oriented political culture or ideology, and ensure peaceful and sustainable transition to democratic leadership. If a developmental dictatorship stays in power for long, it is likely to degenerate into negative and repressive regime. The functionality of institutions and development gains under a repressive regime are hinged on the existence of a powerful dictator and are likely to collapse with his/her demise. In democracy, these institutions remain intact. Developmental gains are institutionalized, and are unlikely to be sustained by the use of excessive violence.

Africa is witnessing signs of a democratic breeze. African states have developed some level of sanity on how they handle issues of governance and accountability. There are predictable levels of security for investors to inject their cash into our economies. These states are playing around with the concept of pluralism that has seen the emergence of vibrant civil societies, and media houses to the pleasure of donor governments that continue to fund African governments, and employ their people in related organizations.

Consequently, most African countries have witnessed emergence of a strong middle class in the society, which according to scholars such as Prof. Goran Hyden, is very instrumental in ensuring a vibrant state and good governance in any country the world over. With these developments, Africa has become more open with African driven media reports and increased research. The Dark Continent is at last getting some light. It is this light that has made the Africa on the rise discourse exaggerated.  I wish we could emphasize a focus on the effectiveness of structural changes and distribution of wealth in sub-Saharan Africa. Otherwise, I tend to think that Africa’s well-wishers expected so little from Africa that when a little progress is made, it captures too much of undeserved and uncritical limelight.

By Gedion Onyango,

Research Fellow: Centre for Research and Technology Development (RESTECH) Maseno University, Kisumu.