Madam Okonjo-Iweala

According a to a recent International Monetary Fund press briefing on recent economic developments in the Sub-Saharan African region with particular reference to Ghana and Nigeria,  Nigeria’s economic outlook looks very robust and the country is set to experience some 7 percent growth this year. From the rebasing that Nigeria did, the economy is, in fact, a lot more diverse. Some 50 percent of Nigerian GDP now is from the services sector. So a more diversified economy, for that reason, makes a country likely to be more resilient to shocks that may come from things like oil.

What is on the ground contradicts what gets published. Nigeria’s Finance Minister has found a way to impress ignorant President Jonathan and mostly marooned Nigeria Senate and House members who do not know how to read the vital signs of an economy. Rebasing Nigeria’s economy using volume of transactions is fine. It is a no-brainer because by the sheer size of Nigeria’s population – 165m compared to South Africa less than 53m, the volume is a significant factor – quantitatively but qualitatively less given per capita income levels. The Per capita income of Nigeria is about $3,010, compared to South Africa’s $6,620. Now do the math.

Until Nigeria banks, financial institutions can take lead in economic development charging less than 10% on borrowed money, lend money up to 20 years on fixed interest rate amortizing schedule and not Interest Only, and unemployment is about 10%, the noise about how well Nigeria is doing is to impress naïve people. IMF is fond of issuing lousy projections which often times have nothing to do with what is on the ground.

In the core Igbo states – Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo, an area less than 12,000 square miles total, the smallest tribal land in all of Nigeria, between 1999-2007, the 5 states had aggregated budget of nearly $25b. None of the state capitals pumps on daily basis 10m gallons of water. No sewer is available, and the state capitals within less than 50-miles of each other are not connected by a loop road system. Igbo land has less than 1000 miles of well-built roads and a population of nearly 25m relies on power out of say 1000MW. Challenges posed due to limited and inefficient water supply system add to public health challenges and conditions that negate well foundational growth and development.
 
Take Nnewi, a town notoriously known for its claim of rich, wealthy and powerful. The place is a cesspool of rot as they could not come together to have a master plan for Nnewi as a model. Building and having big houses is not an aspect of economic development since the houses add no taxable value – revenue to the public purse. Let’s see how many Nnewi rich folks can afford to pay say 3% of their house value annually in taxes. They will not and will go bankrupt. Nnewi happens to be a town with its own local government as well but it has no leadership. It is unable to produce leading candidates or formidable sensible persons to step up in Anambra except the show of money which often is made from questionable conducts.

Since 1999, Nnewi has not produced any native who is a Senator or Governorship candidate worthy of second look. Their talk of money is just that, consumer wealth to impress hungry folks. Nnewi is less than 20 square miles but it has not demonstrated physical development indices to impress even her own people. Its old secondary school, Okongwu Memorial, is a trash pit begging to be cleaned up.

Nigeria is still far from achieving the level of development to dent decades of Do Nothing economy. While there are signs of improvement, take a trip to Nigeria and see for yourself. On education, the entire federal budget for federal ministry of education is about $3b, and University of Nigeria Nsukka [UNN] gets about N12b - $72m, less than University of Maiduguri. University of Texas System has a budget of $19b, Do the math.

Had Nigeria maintained and sustained its Dollar-Naira exchange rates of 1985, its overall economic output today would be at least 70% of US given the population which is half of US, and placing the country among the 10 top economies in the world. A country that lost so much in less than 30 years cannot jump itself into prominence hinging and hedging bet on IMF ‘feel good’ predictions while 90% Nigerians are held up living in conditions similar to cave men times. Finally, most college graduates in Nigeria, 20 years after graduation, are yet to own a home or have stable income to warrant venturing into other aspects of living. Take away majority who work in oil/gas, banking and related industries, and the bulk are hustlers eking a living on ‘anything goes’ engagements. If the most skilled force of a country - her educated work force are so decimated, how can such a country claim growing?  It is IMPROVING but NOT GROWING.

Economic GROWTH speaks to absorption of skilled labor such that paid wages and income can sustain one reasonably. According to Madam Okonjo-Iweala, about 3.8m Nigerians earn an income of $30,000 annually about N5m, and 85% of them live in Abuja, Lagos and Port Harcourt. Very well, unfortunately Nigeria is not Abuja, Lagos and Port Harcourt. There are other states and cities. Statistically speaking, those are exceptions and no one given to knowledge of statistics and its use uses exceptions to override conclusions demonstrated by averages, mean, median and frequencies. The quicksand income that comes from political operatives is hardly a measure to use in assessing the pulse of an economy. Majority of these political operatives (once they fall out of favor or are no longer in government) find it hard to sustain a lifestyle compared to what they briefly experienced. That is why politics in Nigeria is a dog-eat-dog, with the strong bent to maim and kill in order to keep the gravy train flowing. Government largesse is often wasteful and doles out due to nepotism, which makes Nigerians to believe that they do not have to earn a skill but find their way to political engagements to extort by ambushing.

Nigerians are welcome to Celebrate Nigeria, that is good. But let them become critical and seek better information than what the leadership spins to create feel good effects. Suckers are born every second and in Nigeria, no one needs a brain to see them – 165m of them to be exact.

By Ejike E. Okpa II
Dallas, Texas.