The embryos of growth that initially attended Nigeria’s fourth republic and its accompanying orchard of hope withered and mottled prior to maturity. In the aftermath of this blight--at a very nascent stage of the democratic process--it gave rise to a mutant that neither coheres with nor conforms to the spirit and the letter of democracy. Notwithstanding this fundamental flaw, the overly optimistic and forever hopeful Nigerians chose to keep faith with this form of government rather than the alternative.

Is all this about to change, given the recent postponement of its election, reported rigging of Ekiti state election and pronouncements made by major political stakeholders? Is faith in this form of government a miscast judgment--judging by the unedifying conducts of its main political actors and their handlers in the run up to the presidential election?

The current cognitive dissonance confronting the average Nigerian electorates--who have a choice to make between a present that is not too dissimilar from a distant past--may drive them to forget and hanker after yesterday. Some have gone beyond the competing charms of different types of government as they hanker for a complete dismembering of the country.

The Nigerian political elite, over the years, has transformed the country and its society into a Byzantine edifice of corruption where everyday hope and honest aspiration have become something to sniff at and ridicule--as a clear evidence of lack of ambition and gumption on the part of its ordinary citizen. To further compound the lot of its teeming population who are economically disenfranchised, the elite stir and stoke up their contrived ethnic and religious differences; without learning from history about the lethality and the irredeemable end-point of such irresponsible goading.

History, Cicero said, is the great instructor of public life. But history is not the strongest suit of Nigerian political elite (only last year, the current leadership, in its inimitable style and wisdom championed the removal of history from the school curriculum.) History, as an eccentric educator tends not to make available its wisdom to us pre-packaged. Christopher Clark put it succinctly: lessons are “oracles whose relevance to our predicament have to be puzzled over.” Is the current leadership pondering and paying significant attention to historical lesions? Judging by its reckless conduct before and in the run-up to the forthcoming election, the answer is pretty obvious.

Given the development that presaged the Nigerian civil war--concatenation of events in the political process and its wider ramifications on the civil society--it is perilously possible to safely assume that the politics of immediacy has not changed in the country. In fact, it has intensified. Primordial political interests hold sway over enlightened collective interest of common good.

Taken together the forgoing, the pessimistic proposition that Nigeria has eventually crossed the Rubicon may be a safe assumption by political pundits. By gauging the mood and the recent postponement of the presidential election from 14 February 2015 to 28 March, such a pronouncement may not be completely out of kilter. But is this right?

My analysis and writing on Nigeria is an admixture of paranoia and optimism. Paranoia because Nigeria as an entity is facing an existential threat--from Boko Haram, the Islamist terrorist group which has largely gone unrecognised and unacknowledged by the current leadership. Besides, the declines in oil prices as a result of supply shock and its wider ramifications, extreme hardship and a bleak future in an already economically challenged population are real source of concern in a country with a significant proportion of unemployed youth. Optimism because, although the political elite has refused to learn from history, the average Nigerians that bore the brunt of the civil war have the vestiges and scars etched on their mind. Further, over time, this group has realised that the political class and their diehard claque are riveted by the oil resources with absolutely little or no interest in the call to public service. Moreso, the resilience and irrepressible nature of the average Nigerians who look beyond the fog of political confusion and chaos are reasons for optimism.

All things considered, Nigeria is needed more than ever, notwithstanding the popular saying about Nigeria dividing the world into two camps: 80% does not care about what happens to it; and the remaining 20% is of the view that whatever happens to it, it probably deserves it. Regardless of what anyone may say, if Nigeria were to unravel, the ripples and ramifications will be felt not just in the sub-region but further afield. Further, within the financial industry, Nigeria has provided the fillip in the broader optimism that has serenaded Africa over the last 15 years. Its continued existence will continue to provide the bulwark for economic growth and development in the sub-Saharan sub-region.

The next few weeks to the elections will be difficult. The momentum is with Mr Muhammadu Buhari and his All Progressives Congress (APC). However, there are worrying signs and development that the ruling party and the incumbent president may not be in a hurry to oblige the electorates with its swan song. In Nigeria, when psephologists talk about the power of incumbency, it invariably means a sub-audition for manipulating state institutions to perpetuate the government in power.

It would be disrespectful, disheartening and dangerous if the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) formed the view that it would use Ekiti state election as a template for the presidential election (“2015: Reading The Political Leaf,” The Guardian, 06 July 2014). This temptation will always be there for the PDP stalwarts and its ardent supporters, given its squandered goodwill and pauperisation of Nigerians since it came to power in 1999, makes its legitimacy and claim to government untenable.

In order to forestall further declension and potential descent to chaos and confusion, the military and the police must restore their  tarnished image by steering clear from the murky waters of politics. The two national parties and their supporters must refrain from activities and pronouncements that would worsen the already fragile state of the nation. Further, the leadership at the centre and its party ought to reciprocate the confidence reposed on it by Nigerians--for the past 15 years--by desisting from the use of federal institutions to legitimise its hold on power. A free and fair election is imperative. Nigeria can still survive this trying period in its history. To paraphrase Immanuel Kant as regards the crooked timber of humanity in this context would read like this: out of the rotten timber of Nigeria, oddities and peculiarities proliferate but should not perpetuate ad infinitum.

The previously silent drumbeats of change have become audible, and its rhythm is in lockstep with the direction and the march of the people; a march not in the direction of the Rubicon, but towards a most needed recovery.

By Dr Anayo Unachukwu

The author, Dr Anayo Unachukwu, lives in the UK. He was a consultant psychiatrist at Ansel Clinic Nottingham, England. He comments on political and social issues in the society.