(FDC) President Mugisha Muntu

Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) President Major General (Rtd) Mugisha Muntu invited me to the occasion of the launch of the FDC Party policy agenda under the rubric of ‘Uganda’s leap forward.’ I duly honored the invitation, partly because I believe that nations are built on ideas, conversations and listening to people you may not necessarily agree with as a basis for healthy politics in our society - and importantly, this occasion, for now, demonstrated a shift from street protests and politics of belligerence and stubborn anger that had over the years defined the inner character of FDC - and probably now to ideas space if the momentum is maintained.

This is, for starters, a good thing that must be welcomed by Ugandans of all political shades. This score is also a gain for Gen. Muntu that will probably seal his position as the un-disputed leader of FDC. Apart from the usual 'agende' sloganeering, rehearsed bashing and Gen. Muntu’s several references to H.E President Museveni as ‘Mr. Museveni’- sadly, an undersurface ruse of non-recognition of President Museveni as legitimate – which is pure subterfuge;- I must say, there were some interesting ideas that add value to the country and create momentum for transformation.

For example, the issue of Farmers Transformation Bank to reign in interest rates for farmers came out strongly. This issue has been on the menu of Uganda National Farmers Federation for quite a while, yet FDC’s emphasis of the issue is welcome. Also, the issue of creating planned current and future cities is a plus. Most other important issues like fighting corruption, solving the problem of schools dropouts, lack of medicine in health centers, eradicating poverty and strengthening government effectiveness are not fresh.

There was neither a silver bullet solution provided on how to tackle them nor a clear absence of deeper attempt at concreteness, specificity, clear and robust indicators, analysis of risks and a clear delivery mechanism. For example, spending more to have children have lunch at school sounds good, but what is the projected cost of doing that? Where will FDC get the money? What will be the role of parents?

Gen. Muntu did not deliver FDC’s back pocket ideas on increasing public revenue. It was mostly on ‘we will spend more and more’ on this and that. Is FDC seeking to finance its agenda through external borrowing and money from armies of salvation?  Allocating local governments more money at face value sounds good and a vote winner. But why is FDC seeking to transform local governments into cost centers instead of production and revenue centers? How will this make local governments sustainable?  On the issue of jobs for millions of Ugandans, If FDC believes the NRM government’s investments in infrastructure and venture funds in Youth Livelihoods program et al will not create rewarding jobs, what is FDC’s plan on creating 4 million jobs once it wins power in Uganda? Of course, FDC Secretary General, Hon. Alice Alaso tried to explain this away by saying this is a policy agenda and not a Manifesto - but Ugandans expected to hear more of specific policy options that matter to their everyday livelihood and the future. 

The Government of Uganda is reflecting on ideas to make a now stable financial sector work for farmers, women, youth, micro, small scale and medium enterprises. Our commercial banking industry is still indeed ‘commercial’ and not ‘developmental’- a shift to the latter is in the works. You see, naturally, commercial banks should focus on clients' cash flow projections and not collateral security while considering credit/loans to businesses. Most of our commercial banks are recoverists and not facilitators of business growth that sadly focus on collateral security as a key consideration for expending credit to businesses. This is short-term and non-sustainable.

Ideas on supporting development banks that focus on long term business financing and nurturing businesses are at a high level. Our bond and treasury bills market that profiteer commercial banks through public internal borrowing and thus crowding out private sector and sustaining non-flexible high interest rates is under review. The NRM government is deeply concerned about price of money. NRM is looking to reverse this through a number of actions that include; concrete public budgeting – now a new public finance law that embeds a number of governance safeguards has been assented to by the President and delivered for action. Under the new law, the issue of supplementary budgets will be curtailed and a vote of confidence in planning and budgeting restored. Loan guarantee schemes for farmers and SME's, expanding business development services, skills development, business evangelism - and heavily capitalizing Uganda development bank to offer long term low interest credit to entrepreneurs are all on the menu – going forward.

The NRM government continues to tackle disease, illiteracy and poverty. In spite of challenges, universal education (primary and secondary) and universal immunization – have delivered significant strides towards a healthy and literate population. I know many doctors, nurses and teachers - even politicians in this country who would have never seen a blackboard if it were not for universal education. Now, the focus is on deepening learning outcomes through eradicating absenteeism, better remuneration for teachers and making sure children have instructional materials they need. Focus on household incomes and food security will also guarantee that children in school have all the nutrition and diet they need.

On poverty, all nation states on earth are grappling with poverty- and there is no excuse for inaction. Comparatively, Uganda is on the right path. According to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) Global Monitoring Report 2013, Kenya’s poverty headcount stands at 43.37 per cent against Uganda’s 38.01 per cent using the poverty cut-off point of $1.25 per person. Tanzania stands at 67.87 per cent; Rwanda poverty stands at 63.17 per cent while in Burundi, it is at 81.32 per cent.

The poverty level scoring was based on the number of people living below $1.25 a day. Now the NRM government is engaging gear number five to make poverty history in Uganda. The focus is now on wealth creation with a laser focus on households. Balancing infrastructure investments with targeted investments to stimulate household wealth is what will deliver a quantum leap for Uganda. The NRM government is on it. Uganda needs a quantum leap and not a leap forward as proposed by FDC. Mere incremental progress is what FDC envisions. The NRM vision is geometric -- looking at taking Uganda quickly through a middle income nation state to First World. Inhibiting constraints have been overcome and global credit rating agencies are rating Uganda’s economy strongly. For example, in February 2015, Fitch upgraded Uganda's long term credit rating to B+ from B, citing strong economic growth, improved revenue collection diminishing dependence on external aid and relatively low debt burden.

In these ensuing inter and intra political party policy debates, we must pick lessons and refine our democracy. It shouldn’t be a style for politicians to go out of their way to be belligerent, foment violence, offend people or be controversial for the sake of being controversial. That is offensive and counterproductive. It makes people feel defensive and more resistant to changes. We must all commit and insist that politics of mere sloganeering will no longer pass as an acceptable form of debate in this country. And yes, we must get policies right on the onset – we can’t make mistakes at policy formulation and articulation. Implementing a right policy wrongly is better than implementing a wrong policy correctly. I am once again happy that FDC is joining the ideas space. Other opposition parties should sign up.

By Morrison Rwakakamba,
Special Presidential Assistant, Research and Information. mrwakakamba@gmail.com