Terror: Why KDF Should Not Pull Out of Somalia
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| KDF soldiers in Somalia P. Courtesy |
Some experts have strongly opposed the presence of KDF in Somalia requesting the government to withdraw from Somalia so that Al-Shabaab can have a soft stand on Kenyans. Similarly, others have proposed that the Jubilee government should send more forces in Somalia.
Kenya has spent considerable amount of time and money to the tune of billions in trying to tame Al-Shabaab. There has been stable progress but not without ups and downs. The KDF short coming should not be used as a panacea to refute the progress our military has made. Recalling our military means Kenya has lost the battle.
Terrorists killed Kenyans long before we ventured into Somalia. We were bombed in 1998 and 2002 despite the fact that Somalia refugees were seeking asylum in Kenya making their extremism more of war without a course not related to a territorial dispute, political ideology or historical injustice but aimed at achieving unknown good.
Similarly, I read distorted and grossly exaggerated stories from major news organizations about the "failures" in the war in Somalia. "The most trusted name in news" and a long list of others continue to misrepresent the scale of events in Somalia. Print and video journalists are covering only a fraction of the events and, more often than not, what they cover is only negative.
Relying on distorted reportage has influenced our pundits to express their unqualified opinion that besides withdrawing our soldiers in Somalia, Garissa University should also be closed down completely and turned into a military barrack.
Such an opinion forgets that Garissa, just like any other county, required development and closing the academic institution means endangering upcoming intellectuals in the region. Closure of the University will make Al-Shabaab celebrate for sparking fear into the government.
Those who have read the ancient Chinese military theorist and army General Sun Tzu’s ‘The Art of War’ will recall the philosophy of "Kill one, scare ten thousand" as the basic theory behind the strategy of terrorism. Through fear, the terrorist can then manipulate the behaviour of the masses.
Kenya has military barracks in the North Eastern and creating more does not mean we will effectively combat terrorists. It is our military response that has been lackadaisical when the enemy strikes despite their excellent job in Somalia. For example, during the Westgate Mall terror attack, KDF spent twelve hours with terrorists. Kenyans witnessed a repeat in Garissa massacre where the forces spent nine hours with the enemy surrounding the University without counter- insurgency. That gave Al-Shabaab time to do more killings by use of machetes.
Therefore, one question those “experts” pressurizing president Uhuru to remove our army in Somalia should ask is, how comes its Kenya bearing the brunt yet the operation is under AMISOM (Uganda, Rwanda and Kenya) are involved. That means those countries have secured their borders. Ethiopia boarders Somalia but we rarely hear of Al-Shabaab there.
Also bothersome are references by "experts" on how "long" this war is taking. I have read that in the world of manufacturing, you can have only two of the following three qualities when developing a product — ‘cheap,’ ‘fast,’ or ‘good.’ One can produce something cheap and fast, but it won't be good; good and fast, but it won't be cheap; good and cheap, but it won't be fast.
In this case, Kenyans want the result to be good and we want it at the lowest cost in human lives. Given this set of conditions, one can expect this war is to take a while, and rightfully so. Creating a democracy in Somalia not only will require a change in the political system, but the economic system as well.
Examples of studies of similar socio-economic changes that took place in countries like Bulgaria, Chile, Serbia, Russia and other countries with oppressive Socialist dictatorships shows that it took seven to ten years to move those countries to where they are now. There are many lessons to be learned from these transformations, the most important being that change doesn't come easily, even without an insurgency going on.
Maybe the experts should take a look at all of the work that has gone into stabilizing Bosnia-Herzegovina over the last 12 years. KDF is just at the 70-month mark in Somalia, a place far more oppressive than Bosnia ever was. If previous examples are any comparison, there will be no quick solutions, but that should be no surprise to an analyst who has done his homework.
The self-proclaimed "experts" on whom we rely for complete and factual accounts have little experience in counter-insurgency operations to support their assessments. How would they really know if things are going well or not? War is an ugly thing with many unexpected twists and turns. None of them is qualified to say “Operation Linda Inchi” is a lost cause at this point. What would they have said in early 1942 about US chances of winning World War II? Was it a lost cause too? How much have these "experts" studied warfare and counter-insurgencies in particular? Have they ever read Roger Trinquier's treatise Modern Warfare: A French View on Counter-insurgency (1956)? He is one of the few French military guys who got it right.
The Algerian insurgency of 1950s and the Somalia insurgency have many similarities. What about Napoleon's campaigns in Sardinia in 1805-07? Again, there are a lot of similarities to Somalia War. Have they studied that and contrasted the strategies? Or, have they even read Mao Zedung's theories on insurgencies, or Nygen Giap's, or maybe Che' Gueverra's? Have they seen any of Sun Tzu's work lately? If an analyst doesn't recognize the names on this list, he or she probably isn't qualified to assess the state of “Operation Linda nchi.”
Why would media seek opinion from someone who probably knows even less than they do about the state of matters in Somalia? It sells commercials, I suppose. But, I find it amazing that some people are more apt to listen to a movie star's or rock singer's view on how KDF should prosecute Somalia War than to someone whose profession it is to know how these things should go.
It seems that anyone who has a dissenting view is first to get in front of the camera. I support the freedom of expression, but let's talk of things we understand. Otherwise, television news soon could have about as much credibility as "The Bachelor" has for showing us truly loving couples.
“Breaking News, Al-Shabaab Massacre 146 in Garissa University” is what TV highlights but the same media ignore to update our citizenry of the same when KDF drones strike Al-Shabaab camps in Baidoa.
Ironically, the press freedom that has been brought in the world is providing support for the enemy we fight. This media serves as the glass through which a relatively small event can be magnified to international proportions, and the enemy is exploiting this with incredible ease.
Such imbalanced reportage from both local and international press makes Kenyans think KDF venture in Somalia is a lost War thus President Uhuru should recall our soldiers. These images and stories, out of scale and context to the greater good going on, are just the sort of thing the terrorists are looking for. This focus on the enemy's successes without a counter continually serve as propaganda victories for Al-Shabaab thus strengthens his resolve and abets the cause. It's the Kenyan image that suffers in the end.
In its zeal to get to the hot spots and report the latest bombing, the media is missing the reality of a greater good going on in Somalia. KDF seldom is seen doing anything positive in the news. The good is ignored and replaced with the bad. However, I am confident that history will prove Kenya’s cause right, but by the time that happens, the world might be so steeped in the gloom of ignorance that people won’t recognize victory when it comes.
By Okwaro Oscar Plato
The author [email protected] is an analyst with Gravio Consulting. The views are his own.