Africa Economic Outlook Bright

Published on 26th October 2015

The recent analysis from the African Development Bank as part of the AEO, points out that the 2014 growth was about one percentage point lower than predicted in last year’s African Economic Outlook, as the global economy remained weaker and some African countries saw severe domestic challenges during this period. However Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to strengthen to 4.5% in 2015 and 5% in 2016 after subdued expansion in 2013 and 2014.

If the 2015 AEO predictions are right, then Africa will soon be moving towards the impressive growth levels seen before the 2008/09 global economic crisis. It is also encouraging that West Africa achieved relatively high growth of 6% in 2014 despite its battle with the Ebola. Nigeria’s growth of 6.3% came mainly from non-oil sectors showing that the economy is diversifying. It is worth noting however that the Southern Africa’s growth fell below 3% influenced largely by the fact that the South African economy only grew by 1.5%.

It is also important to note that the current growth has been more about domestic demand while external demand has remained mostly subdued because of flagging export markets, notably in advanced countries and to a lesser extent in emerging economies.  This signals the importance of driving the decent work agenda as it is the very workers who are one of the key factors that are behind domestic demand. This confirms the theory that when workers and citizens enjoy decent work conditions with all its core elements, it drives demand for goods and services and that in turn drives production and by extension, propels economic growth.

Many countries in our continent have improved their investment climate and conditions for doing business, which enhance long-term growth prospects. Countries like Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Senegal and Togo are in the top ten countries worldwide, with the most reforms making it easier to do business.

So far African economies have been relatively resilient to the sharp fall of international commodity prices. Production of commodities has often increased despite the lower prices, and overall growth has also been boosted by other sectors. But if commodity prices remain low or decline further, growth in resource-rich countries might slow down as governments cut expenditure. Governments will be keeping a close watch on conditions in key markets, especially China and Europe.

It is fact that African countries have made significant strides in all dimensions of human development, comparable with other regions of the world. In 2014, 17 out of 52 African countries achieved high and medium levels of human development. It is worth noting that Countries in East and West Africa have experienced faster rates of improvement in human development indicators related to education, health and income compared to Central, North and Southern Africa.

However there have been notable improvements in some countries in the Southern Africa region, the highest being Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia,  whilst the leading countries in East Africa are Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda and the United Republic of Tanzania.  As we gather here we need not limit our exposure to our own respective countries, but learn from the experiences of other countries within the African Continent.

In my experience our countries are quick to organise study tours abroad to gather lessons whilst leaving best practices right on our door steps in the African continent. Some of our own best practices as a Continent ranks among the best in world by any standard, so why not leverage this advantage to influence and advance the global agenda on our own terms.  With institutions like ARLAC, this can become a reality and not rhetoric.

Gender inequality remains a huge challenge and is historical. On average, the level of female human development is 13% lower than that for males. Women in Africa face high levels of discrimination that have an impact on their socio-economic rights and violence against women continues to be a major concern.  The training programme of ARLAC must reflect this as a challenge and craft instruments to deal with it.

It is estimated that the Africa’s population of 1 billion will double by 2050.  The workforce is expected to increase by 910 million people between 2010 and 2050, of which 830 million in sub-Saharan Africa. The estimated numbers of youth joining labour markets in 2015 are about 19 million in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the next 15 years, the figures will be 370 million and 65 million respectively, or a yearly average of 24.6 million and 4.3 million new entrants into the labour market. Therefore creating more productive jobs becomes even more pressing.

I am raising these issues in order to illustrate the magnitude of the challenges we face as a continent and as individual countries. But most importantly to take these harsh realities into account when crafting the road map going forward.
Those who know better often say that in every crisis, there is an opportunity; the question is to what extent are we ready to seize the moment? I submit that the centrality of ARLAC’s mandate is key in making a meaningful contribution in this regard.

The preamble of the ILO Constitution is instructive where it states, and I quote “…universal and lasting peace can be established only if it is based upon social justice… the failure of any nation to adopt humane conditions of labour is an obstacle in the way of other nations which desire to improve the conditions in their own countries.”

The ILO has since its inception, adopted Conventions, Declarations and recommendations that seek to give meaning to these ideals.  Some of the key focus areas include, but not limited to;

1.    Regulation of the hours of work including the establishment of a maximum working day and week;

2.    Regulation of labour supply, prevention of unemployment and provision of an adequate living wage;

3.    Protection of the worker against sickness, disease and injury arising out of his employment;

4.    Protection of children, young persons and women;

5.    Provision for old age and injury, protection of the interests of workers when employed in countries other than their own;

6.    Recognition of the principle of equal remuneration for work of equal value;

7.    Recognition of the principle of freedom of association;

8.    Organization of vocational and technical education, and other measures.

It follows therefore that effective and operational labour administration machinery is crucial for achieving social justice as espoused in the preamble of the ILO Constitution.

The question is to what extent have we ratified the core conventions and, what steps have we taken to translate them into instruments that bring about tangible difference to working people and by extension the broader society? Adopting and ratifying ILO Conventions without the commensurate commitment to implement them, is meaningless.

By Mildred Oliphant
Labour Minister, Republic of South Africa.


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