Kenya State of the Nation Speech
President Uhuru Kenyatta gave a good state of the nation speech in parliament in the face of raucous disruptions by the opposition MPs. I wonder what most Kenyans thought about what he failed to address or embellish in his speech. First, except for its nuisance and entertainment value, I think the ODM MPs conduct of trying to bully the president into silence was immature and completely out of order. There is time and place for disagreement. The purpose of the president’s speech was simply to give a report of where he sees the country from his vantage point, period. The opposition and the governed like myself should have listened and responded afterwards. It is the right way for civilized societies to conduct affairs. There ought to be serious sanctions or penalties against unruly MPs - severe enough to punish and prevent future recurrences. Notwithstanding these hiccups, the president appeared thoroughly bemused.
That said, the president skipped, glossed over and in some cases out-rightly embellished his government’s performance. This cannot go unchallenged. Some have called the President’s speech self-serving propaganda and a Public Relations Stunt. While the president may need a reality check or tune-up, we are equally obligated to make the case for why he should do better. It is our turn to speak.
THE GOOD:
Salute to the Military. As Commander-in Chief, saluting fallen soldiers was in order but he failed to acknowledge the military’s inherent unpreparedness in the wake of multiple warnings before attacks. We have seen this in Garissa, Westgate mall attack, Coast province, the Baragoi massacre and others in between. If the security forces suffer such causalities in the hands of ragtag militias and cattle rustlers, how is the ordinary citizen protected? The president didn’t address the issue adequately in my view.
Criticism of the government. While the president struck a good note by inviting criticism by the opposition, the Jubilee government has increasingly become very sensitive and intolerant to criticism. Stories of journalists and editors mysteriously losing their employment with media houses soon after they write unflattering pieces about the Jubilee regime are worrying. I hope he takes steps to reverse this worrying trend.
THE BAD
Economy. The president touted the country’s economic growth of 5.8% in 2015 and that Kenya is classified as a middle income country despite the glaring truth that it is not – someone changed the formula about two years ago and forgot to include real income increases or lack thereof in the calculation. By any objective measure, the country’s economy is underperforming on almost all key measurable parameters and is losing its competitive ground to its neighbors at an alarming rate.
Kenya has lost so much ground that new direct investments are at pre-2002 levels. Retired President Mwai Kibaki had re-established Kenya as the region’s economic powerhouse after 24 years of continued decline under Moi. At the three year mark in Kibaki’s administration, the economy had registered an annual net gain/growth rate of roughly 10% points. This was from a negative 2.3% growth under Moi to about 7%. By contrast, the economy at a similar point in time under the Jubilee regime is tattering and continually being revised downward. With as many foreign trips in the name of wooing new investors, the results should be triple or quadruple those of Kibaki who hardly travelled. The economy seems to be supported largely by the programs initiated by Kibaki.
Fiscally Irresponsible, the country is practically insolvent and inching closer and closer to bankruptcy. Currently, the Jubilee government runs on almost 50% annual deficit from only about 10% during the Kibaki era. The debt has quadrupled and now stands at US 47 Billion Dollars - and rising - almost double the country’s GDP of US 26 Billion Dollars. This translates into about US 550 Dollars of GDP to a debt of US 975 dollars per capita. This is not good. France has announced another “debt” package of 28 Billion Kenya Shillings for infrastructure. We just had a 260 Billion Shilling bond sale less than two years ago with very little to show for it. By failing to live within our means and as the borrowing rises, it not only crowds out businesses competing with the government for loans but also erodes the government’s own capacity and ability to fund other much needed services and infrastructure development. The ever increasing periodic interest payments are subtracted from available resources/budgets. At some point, even lenders will stop lending the country because credit risk becomes simply too much. Similarly, as these loans come closer and closer to maturity, the prospect of default is very real. The country’s credit rating has been downgraded in the last year, meaning it now costs more in interest rates and ultimately more money to borrow money.
Unsound Monetary policies. Kenya is experiencing a high cost of doing business which in turn means high cost of living, increased unemployment and a contracting economy. Banks in Kenya have been reporting astronomical profits year after year, I mean insane profits – all because they have been allowed to charge exorbitant interest rates in the name of credit “risk.” The truth is, there is a direct correlation between bank profits and the poor economic performance. Recently, Treasury Cabinet Secretary testified in Parliament that regulating interest rates is not the way to tame inflation but rather reducing domestic borrowing. This is ironic because as he testified, the government was floating Billions of shillings worth of more domestic borrowing to fund its recurrent expenditures. The president did not speak to these grim realities that the country faces that would most likely take place after he leaves office.
The Ignored downtrodden Diaspora. Not once did President Kenyatta mention the Kenyan Diaspora in his remarks despite the fact that they are a major economic engine that contributes as much as 12% to the GDP and government coffers. Quoting US Senator Elizabeth Warren, “if you are not at the table helping make decisions, you are most certainly on the menu” and nowhere is that clear as with the Kenya government’s relations with its Diaspora. Unlike other countries such as Israel, India, Morocco, Nigeria, and Egypt that have managed to institutionalize their Diaspora’s participation in political, social and economic infrastructure and established platforms upon which capital flows are channeled with quantifiable and measurable results, Kenya remains light years behind in setting up the requisite platforms upon which its Diaspora can fully optimize their full potential. As a consequence, the country continues to miss out on a lot of transformative opportunities that its peers have reaped from their Diasporas.
The Diaspora should have a full stand-alone Ministry and Secretariat run, at least substantially, by the Diaspora itself. Last year the president commissioned the so-called “Diaspora policy” despite numerous protestations because it was fatally flawed and had been rejected before. We in Diaspora remain the most marginalized group of any Kenyans, even as we collectively contribute about US 2 Billion dollars to the Kenyan economy and the upwards of US 200 Million Dollars to government coffers annually. We have been consistently denied the opportunity to vote. Taxation without representation is simply wrong and a human rights violation.
Soon after assuming office, President Kenyatta was seen as the panacea for the woes that Kenya’s Diaspora have endured over the years. He made bold announcements that would be mutually beneficial to the country and its diaspora such as his announcement in Washington DC that exempted Kenyans who live in Left-Hand Drive countries from import duties of right hand vehicles substitutes imported from other countries. Treasury reversed the president’s directive soon afterwards.
THE UGLY
At least the president acknowledges corruption is a problem but is he doing enough to stop it? Whether it is the Eurobond, NYS, Youth fund, name it - the problem is widespread. I am not sure whether acknowledging the problem serves the president much less the country any good. Kenyans have not gotten the accounting and disclosures about the Eurobond. School cheating is on the rise. On the laptops issue, it would be much prudent if such an investment was made of 12th graders where those skills could be used in the market place sooner than with first graders, and then gradually passed down through the rest of the grades. On teachers, the government has decided to show the teachers who the boss really is and has retaliated by systematically trying to break the Teachers’ unions,
These are some of the issues I wish the president addressed.
By David Ochwangi